Championship·Regular Season - 8·
Championship·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: David Webb · England
Goals
32%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.492.76safe0.31–2.240.63–2.350.94–4.59safer0.05–2.500.38–2.600.44–5.09actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
34%
13%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.094.768.85safe2.23–5.943.06–6.475.29–12.41safer1.73–6.442.59–6.944.32–13.38actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9812.7725.75safe9.28–16.699.39–16.1518.67–32.84safer8.25–17.728.46–17.0816.71–34.80actual15.0015.0030.00
Shots in box
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction9.148.3617.50safe6.63–11.666.06–10.6612.69–22.32safer5.76–12.525.27–11.4611.03–23.98actual7.0013.0020.00
Blocked shots
38%
15%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.423.757.17safe1.84–5.012.34–5.164.18–10.17safer1.31–5.541.85–5.653.15–11.19actual4.005.009.00
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.254.9410.19safe3.04–7.452.96–6.926.00–14.37safer2.45–8.052.43–7.464.87–15.50actual5.003.008.00
Possession %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction42.5755.93safe36.26–48.8949.61–62.25safer34.66–50.4948.01–63.85actual57.0043.00
Passes
13%
87%
homeawaytotalprediction358487844safe292–423422–551714–974safer275–440405–569679–1010actual365400765
Pass accuracy %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction65.9872.29safe61.77–70.2067.78–76.80safer60.47–71.5066.45–78.13
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8311.3822.21safe7.97–13.698.43–14.3216.41–28.01safer7.09–14.577.52–15.2414.60–29.81actual11.0011.0022.00
Offsides
25%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.093.145.23safe0.88–3.301.97–4.302.86–7.60safer0.54–3.651.64–4.632.18–8.28actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.292.134.42safe1.24–3.351.01–3.252.25–6.60safer0.97–3.620.72–3.541.69–7.16actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.945.62safe1.27–4.101.39–4.492.66–8.59safer0.88–4.490.95–4.931.84–9.41actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.31–2.24 0.05–2.50 | 2.00 | 1.49 0.63–2.35 0.38–2.60 | 2.00 | 2.76 0.94–4.59 0.44–5.09 | 4.00 | 32% 25% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.09 2.23–5.94 1.73–6.44 | 5.00 | 4.76 3.06–6.47 2.59–6.94 | 4.00 | 8.85 5.29–12.41 4.32–13.38 | 9.00 | 34% 13% 52% |
| Total shots | 12.98 9.28–16.69 8.25–17.72 | 15.00 | 12.77 9.39–16.15 8.46–17.08 | 15.00 | 25.75 18.67–32.84 16.71–34.80 | 30.00 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 9.14 6.63–11.66 5.76–12.52 | 7.00 | 8.36 6.06–10.66 5.27–11.46 | 13.00 | 17.50 12.69–22.32 11.03–23.98 | 20.00 | 53% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 1.84–5.01 1.31–5.54 | 4.00 | 3.75 2.34–5.16 1.85–5.65 | 5.00 | 7.17 4.18–10.17 3.15–11.19 | 9.00 | 38% 15% 47% |
| Corners | 5.25 3.04–7.45 2.45–8.05 | 5.00 | 4.94 2.96–6.92 2.43–7.46 | 3.00 | 10.19 6.00–14.37 4.87–15.50 | 8.00 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 42.57 36.26–48.89 34.66–50.49 | 57.00 | 55.93 49.61–62.25 48.01–63.85 | 43.00 | — | — | 18% 78% |
| Passes | 358 292–423 275–440 | 365 | 487 422–551 405–569 | 400 | 844 714–974 679–1010 | 765 | 13% 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.98 61.77–70.20 60.47–71.50 | — | 72.29 67.78–76.80 66.45–78.13 | — | — | — | 20% 77% |
| Fouls | 10.83 7.97–13.69 7.09–14.57 | 11.00 | 11.38 8.43–14.32 7.52–15.24 | 11.00 | 22.21 16.41–28.01 14.60–29.81 | 22.00 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.09 0.88–3.30 0.54–3.65 | 1.00 | 3.14 1.97–4.30 1.64–4.63 | 0.00 | 5.23 2.86–7.60 2.18–8.28 | 1.00 | 25% 16% 59% |
| Yellow cards | 2.29 1.24–3.35 0.97–3.62 | 2.00 | 2.13 1.01–3.25 0.72–3.54 | 0.00 | 4.42 2.25–6.60 1.69–7.16 | 2.00 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.27–4.10 0.88–4.49 | 3.00 | 2.94 1.39–4.49 0.95–4.93 | 4.00 | 5.62 2.66–8.59 1.84–9.41 | 7.00 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.