Championship·Regular Season - 8·
Championship·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Oliver Langford · England
Goals
50%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.263.03safe0.81–2.740.40–2.121.21–4.86safer0.55–3.000.15–2.360.70–5.36actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.863.728.59safe3.01–6.722.02–5.435.02–12.15safer2.51–7.221.55–5.904.05–13.12actual7.002.009.00
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7111.6526.36safe11.01–18.428.27–15.0319.28–33.45safer9.98–19.457.34–15.9617.32–35.41actual17.0010.0027.00
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.878.3718.24safe7.35–12.386.07–10.6713.42–23.06safer6.49–13.255.28–11.4711.76–24.72actual12.003.0015.00
Blocked shots
59%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.303.197.49safe2.72–5.881.78–4.614.50–10.49safer2.18–6.421.29–5.093.47–11.51actual5.005.0010.00
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.795.0610.85safe3.58–7.993.08–7.046.67–15.03safer2.99–8.592.55–7.585.53–16.17actual2.005.007.00
Possession %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction53.4447.07safe47.13–59.7640.75–53.39safer45.53–61.3639.16–54.99actual36.0064.00
Passes
68%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction457401857safe391–522336–465727–987safer374–540318–483692–1022actual270491761
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction68.9167.64safe64.70–73.1363.13–72.14safer63.39–74.4361.80–73.47
Fouls
23%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction9.1812.0021.17safe6.32–12.039.05–14.9415.37–26.98safer5.43–12.928.14–15.8613.57–28.78actual11.0015.0026.00
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.433.35safe0.71–3.130.26–2.590.97–5.72safer0.37–3.470.00–2.920.30–6.40actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
25%
19%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.424.01safe0.54–2.651.30–3.541.84–6.19safer0.27–2.931.01–3.831.28–6.75actual2.005.007.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.060.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
24%
16%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.123.275.39safe0.71–3.531.71–4.822.42–8.35safer0.32–3.921.28–5.251.60–9.18actual2.006.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.81–2.74 0.55–3.00 | 1.00 | 1.26 0.40–2.12 0.15–2.36 | 0.00 | 3.03 1.21–4.86 0.70–5.36 | 1.00 | 50% 23% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.86 3.01–6.72 2.51–7.22 | 7.00 | 3.72 2.02–5.43 1.55–5.90 | 2.00 | 8.59 5.02–12.15 4.05–13.12 | 9.00 | 59% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.71 11.01–18.42 9.98–19.45 | 17.00 | 11.65 8.27–15.03 7.34–15.96 | 10.00 | 26.36 19.28–33.45 17.32–35.41 | 27.00 | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 9.87 7.35–12.38 6.49–13.25 | 12.00 | 8.37 6.07–10.67 5.28–11.47 | 3.00 | 18.24 13.42–23.06 11.76–24.72 | 15.00 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 2.72–5.88 2.18–6.42 | 5.00 | 3.19 1.78–4.61 1.29–5.09 | 5.00 | 7.49 4.50–10.49 3.47–11.51 | 10.00 | 59% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 5.79 3.58–7.99 2.99–8.59 | 2.00 | 5.06 3.08–7.04 2.55–7.58 | 5.00 | 10.85 6.67–15.03 5.53–16.17 | 7.00 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 53.44 47.13–59.76 45.53–61.36 | 36.00 | 47.07 40.75–53.39 39.16–54.99 | 64.00 | — | — | 63% 32% |
| Passes | 457 391–522 374–540 | 270 | 401 336–465 318–483 | 491 | 857 727–987 692–1022 | 761 | 68% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.91 64.70–73.13 63.39–74.43 | — | 67.64 63.13–72.14 61.80–73.47 | — | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 9.18 6.32–12.03 5.43–12.92 | 11.00 | 12.00 9.05–14.94 8.14–15.86 | 15.00 | 21.17 15.37–26.98 13.57–28.78 | 26.00 | 23% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.71–3.13 0.37–3.47 | 3.00 | 1.43 0.26–2.59 0.00–2.92 | 0.00 | 3.35 0.97–5.72 0.30–6.40 | 3.00 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.54–2.65 0.27–2.93 | 2.00 | 2.42 1.30–3.54 1.01–3.83 | 5.00 | 4.01 1.84–6.19 1.28–6.75 | 7.00 | 25% 19% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.12 0.71–3.53 0.32–3.92 | 2.00 | 3.27 1.71–4.82 1.28–5.25 | 6.00 | 5.39 2.42–8.35 1.60–9.18 | 8.00 | 24% 16% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.