Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Steve Martin · England
Goals
45%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.062.50safe0.47–2.390.20–1.920.67–4.32safer0.21–2.650.00–2.170.17–4.82actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.033.508.53safe3.17–6.881.79–5.214.97–12.09safer2.67–7.381.33–5.684.00–13.06actual2.006.008.00
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9910.6825.67safe11.28–18.697.30–14.0618.58–32.75safer10.25–19.726.37–14.9916.62–34.71actual6.0014.0020.00
Shots in box
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction9.737.7617.49safe7.21–12.245.46–10.0712.67–22.31safer6.35–13.114.67–10.8611.01–23.97actual4.008.0012.00
Blocked shots
62%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.393.037.42safe2.81–5.981.61–4.444.42–10.42safer2.28–6.511.13–4.933.40–11.44actual3.005.008.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.914.4710.37safe3.70–8.112.49–6.456.19–14.56safer3.11–8.711.95–6.985.06–15.69actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction52.1846.14safe45.86–58.5039.82–52.46safer44.27–60.1038.23–54.06actual47.0053.00
Passes
71%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction468401869safe402–533336–466739–999safer385–551319–483704–1034actual430381811
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction64.4466.79safe60.23–68.6662.29–71.30safer58.92–69.9660.95–72.63
Fouls
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction9.0710.2519.32safe6.21–11.927.31–13.2013.52–25.12safer5.32–12.816.39–14.1211.72–26.93actual9.0012.0021.00
Offsides
26%
18%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.714.57safe0.66–3.081.54–3.872.20–6.95safer0.31–3.421.21–4.201.53–7.62actual3.004.007.00
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.492.133.62safe0.44–2.551.01–3.251.45–5.80safer0.16–2.820.72–3.540.89–6.36actual4.002.006.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
25%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.353.425.77safe0.93–3.761.86–4.972.80–8.73safer0.54–4.151.43–5.401.98–9.55actual3.001.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.47–2.39 0.21–2.65 | 1.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 1.00 | 2.50 0.67–4.32 0.17–4.82 | 2.00 | 45% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.03 3.17–6.88 2.67–7.38 | 2.00 | 3.50 1.79–5.21 1.33–5.68 | 6.00 | 8.53 4.97–12.09 4.00–13.06 | 8.00 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 14.99 11.28–18.69 10.25–19.72 | 6.00 | 10.68 7.30–14.06 6.37–14.99 | 14.00 | 25.67 18.58–32.75 16.62–34.71 | 20.00 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.73 7.21–12.24 6.35–13.11 | 4.00 | 7.76 5.46–10.07 4.67–10.86 | 8.00 | 17.49 12.67–22.31 11.01–23.97 | 12.00 | 64% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 4.39 2.81–5.98 2.28–6.51 | 3.00 | 3.03 1.61–4.44 1.13–4.93 | 5.00 | 7.42 4.42–10.42 3.40–11.44 | 8.00 | 62% 13% 24% |
| Corners | 5.91 3.70–8.11 3.11–8.71 | 4.00 | 4.47 2.49–6.45 1.95–6.98 | 5.00 | 10.37 6.19–14.56 5.06–15.69 | 9.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 52.18 45.86–58.50 44.27–60.10 | 47.00 | 46.14 39.82–52.46 38.23–54.06 | 53.00 | — | — | 62% 33% |
| Passes | 468 402–533 385–551 | 430 | 401 336–466 319–483 | 381 | 869 739–999 704–1034 | 811 | 71% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.44 60.23–68.66 58.92–69.96 | — | 66.79 62.29–71.30 60.95–72.63 | — | — | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 9.07 6.21–11.92 5.32–12.81 | 9.00 | 10.25 7.31–13.20 6.39–14.12 | 12.00 | 19.32 13.52–25.12 11.72–26.93 | 21.00 | 35% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.66–3.08 0.31–3.42 | 3.00 | 2.71 1.54–3.87 1.21–4.20 | 4.00 | 4.57 2.20–6.95 1.53–7.62 | 7.00 | 26% 18% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.55 0.16–2.82 | 4.00 | 2.13 1.01–3.25 0.72–3.54 | 2.00 | 3.62 1.45–5.80 0.89–6.36 | 6.00 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.35 0.93–3.76 0.54–4.15 | 3.00 | 3.42 1.86–4.97 1.43–5.40 | 1.00 | 5.77 2.80–8.73 1.98–9.55 | 4.00 | 25% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.