Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.172.63safe0.49–2.430.32–2.030.81–4.46safer0.24–2.680.09–2.260.33–4.94
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.144.078.21safe2.28–6.012.33–5.814.61–11.82safer1.79–6.501.86–6.283.65–12.77
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8412.0724.90safe8.91–16.768.50–15.6317.41–32.39safer7.82–17.857.54–16.5915.36–34.44
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction9.497.8217.31safe6.55–12.435.14–10.5011.69–22.93safer5.72–13.264.40–11.2410.12–24.50
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.283.676.95safe1.40–5.172.01–5.323.41–10.48safer0.86–5.711.52–5.812.38–11.52
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.264.669.92safe3.05–7.482.66–6.665.71–14.13safer2.47–8.052.13–7.194.60–15.24
Possession %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction47.7151.66safe40.92–54.5044.88–58.45safer39.25–56.1743.21–60.12
Passes
43%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction420442862safe353–488376–509729–996safer335–506358–526693–1032
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction66.0071.70safe61.97–70.0367.37–76.02safer60.68–71.3266.06–77.33
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7710.3121.07safe7.93–13.607.36–13.2515.29–26.86safer7.17–14.366.61–14.0013.79–28.36
Offsides
57%
18%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.711.814.52safe1.55–3.870.71–2.902.26–6.77safer1.25–4.170.42–3.191.67–7.36
Yellow cards
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.733.56safe0.78–2.880.60–2.861.38–5.74safer0.51–3.140.31–3.150.83–6.30
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
40%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.792.855.64safe1.35–4.221.30–4.412.64–8.63safer0.96–4.610.87–4.831.83–9.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 1.17 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.26 | 2.63 0.81–4.46 0.33–4.94 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.28–6.01 1.79–6.50 | 4.07 2.33–5.81 1.86–6.28 | 8.21 4.61–11.82 3.65–12.77 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 12.84 8.91–16.76 7.82–17.85 | 12.07 8.50–15.63 7.54–16.59 | 24.90 17.41–32.39 15.36–34.44 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 9.49 6.55–12.43 5.72–13.26 | 7.82 5.14–10.50 4.40–11.24 | 17.31 11.69–22.93 10.12–24.50 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 3.28 1.40–5.17 0.86–5.71 | 3.67 2.01–5.32 1.52–5.81 | 6.95 3.41–10.48 2.38–11.52 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 5.26 3.05–7.48 2.47–8.05 | 4.66 2.66–6.66 2.13–7.19 | 9.92 5.71–14.13 4.60–15.24 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 47.71 40.92–54.50 39.25–56.17 | 51.66 44.88–58.45 43.21–60.12 | — | 38% 57% |
| Passes | 420 353–488 335–506 | 442 376–509 358–526 | 862 729–996 693–1032 | 43% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.00 61.97–70.03 60.68–71.32 | 71.70 67.37–76.02 66.06–77.33 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 10.77 7.93–13.60 7.17–14.36 | 10.31 7.36–13.25 6.61–14.00 | 21.07 15.29–26.86 13.79–28.36 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.71 1.55–3.87 1.25–4.17 | 1.81 0.71–2.90 0.42–3.19 | 4.52 2.26–6.77 1.67–7.36 | 57% 18% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.51–3.14 | 1.73 0.60–2.86 0.31–3.15 | 3.56 1.38–5.74 0.83–6.30 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 2.85 1.30–4.41 0.87–4.83 | 5.64 2.64–8.63 1.83–9.44 | 40% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+