Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Elliot Bell · England
Goals
50%
27%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.420.872.30safe0.46–2.390.01–1.730.47–4.12safer0.20–2.650.00–1.980.00–4.63actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.032.877.90safe3.17–6.891.17–4.584.34–11.47safer2.67–7.380.70–5.053.37–12.43actual8.003.0011.00
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction15.319.3824.69safe11.61–19.016.01–12.7617.61–31.78safer10.58–20.045.08–13.6915.65–33.74actual27.006.0033.00
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.787.1715.95safe6.26–11.294.87–9.4711.13–20.77safer5.39–12.164.08–10.279.47–22.43actual16.003.0019.00
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.852.957.80safe3.27–6.431.54–4.374.80–10.80safer2.73–6.971.05–4.853.78–11.82actual9.002.0011.00
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.524.2010.72safe4.32–8.732.22–6.176.54–14.90safer3.72–9.321.68–6.715.40–16.04actual6.001.007.00
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction62.2138.63safe55.89–68.5232.31–44.95safer54.29–70.1230.71–46.54actual62.0038.00
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction518314832safe453–583250–379703–962safer435–601232–396667–998actual506310816
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction75.0461.94safe70.82–79.2557.44–66.45safer69.52–80.5556.11–67.78
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4814.1925.67safe8.62–14.3411.24–17.1319.86–31.47safer7.74–15.2210.32–18.0518.06–33.27actual10.0015.0025.00
Offsides
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.093.70safe0.41–2.830.92–3.251.33–6.07safer0.06–3.170.59–3.580.65–6.75actual0.004.004.00
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.334.18safe0.80–2.911.20–3.452.01–6.36safer0.53–3.180.91–3.741.44–6.92actual5.003.008.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
19%
15%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction1.883.335.21safe0.46–3.291.78–4.892.24–8.18safer0.07–3.681.35–5.321.42–9.00actual2.005.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.46–2.39 0.20–2.65 | 3.00 | 0.87 0.01–1.73 0.00–1.98 | 1.00 | 2.30 0.47–4.12 0.00–4.63 | 4.00 | 50% 27% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.03 3.17–6.89 2.67–7.38 | 8.00 | 2.87 1.17–4.58 0.70–5.05 | 3.00 | 7.90 4.34–11.47 3.37–12.43 | 11.00 | 72% 17% |
| Total shots | 15.31 11.61–19.01 10.58–20.04 | 27.00 | 9.38 6.01–12.76 5.08–13.69 | 6.00 | 24.69 17.61–31.78 15.65–33.74 | 33.00 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 8.78 6.26–11.29 5.39–12.16 | 16.00 | 7.17 4.87–9.47 4.08–10.27 | 3.00 | 15.95 11.13–20.77 9.47–22.43 | 19.00 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.85 3.27–6.43 2.73–6.97 | 9.00 | 2.95 1.54–4.37 1.05–4.85 | 2.00 | 7.80 4.80–10.80 3.78–11.82 | 11.00 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.52 4.32–8.73 3.72–9.32 | 6.00 | 4.20 2.22–6.17 1.68–6.71 | 1.00 | 10.72 6.54–14.90 5.40–16.04 | 7.00 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 62.21 55.89–68.52 54.29–70.12 | 62.00 | 38.63 32.31–44.95 30.71–46.54 | 38.00 | — | — | 92% |
| Passes | 518 453–583 435–601 | 506 | 314 250–379 232–396 | 310 | 832 703–962 667–998 | 816 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.04 70.82–79.25 69.52–80.55 | — | 61.94 57.44–66.45 56.11–67.78 | — | — | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 11.48 8.62–14.34 7.74–15.22 | 10.00 | 14.19 11.24–17.13 10.32–18.05 | 15.00 | 25.67 19.86–31.47 18.06–33.27 | 25.00 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.41–2.83 0.06–3.17 | 0.00 | 2.09 0.92–3.25 0.59–3.58 | 4.00 | 3.70 1.33–6.07 0.65–6.75 | 4.00 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.80–2.91 0.53–3.18 | 5.00 | 2.33 1.20–3.45 0.91–3.74 | 3.00 | 4.18 2.01–6.36 1.44–6.92 | 8.00 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 1.88 0.46–3.29 0.07–3.68 | 2.00 | 3.33 1.78–4.89 1.35–5.32 | 5.00 | 5.21 2.24–8.18 1.42–9.00 | 7.00 | 19% 15% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+