Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Anthony Backhouse · England
Goals
25%
25%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.031.582.62safe0.07–2.000.72–2.440.79–4.44safer0.00–2.260.48–2.690.29–4.94actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
29%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.834.938.76safe1.97–5.683.22–6.645.19–12.32safer1.47–6.182.75–7.114.23–13.29actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0813.6525.73safe8.38–15.7910.27–17.0318.65–32.81safer7.35–16.829.34–17.9616.69–34.77actual13.0010.0023.00
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction7.479.2016.67safe4.96–9.996.90–11.5011.85–21.49safer4.09–10.856.10–12.2910.19–23.15actual8.003.0011.00
Blocked shots
28%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.114.137.23safe1.52–4.692.71–5.544.24–10.23safer0.99–5.232.23–6.033.21–11.25actual4.004.008.00
Corners
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.445.5710.01safe2.23–6.643.59–7.555.82–14.19safer1.63–7.243.05–8.094.69–15.32actual2.001.003.00
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction36.2063.42safe29.89–42.5257.10–69.73safer28.29–44.1255.50–71.33actual58.0042.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction339560898safe274–404495–624769–1028safer256–422477–642733–1064actual240570810
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction61.5276.20safe57.31–65.7471.69–80.71safer56.01–67.0470.36–82.04
Fouls
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.219.5020.72safe8.36–14.076.56–12.4514.91–26.52safer7.47–14.965.64–13.3613.11–28.32actual12.0011.0023.00
Offsides
59%
18%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.671.654.32safe1.46–3.880.49–2.821.95–6.69safer1.12–4.220.16–3.151.27–7.37actual4.000.004.00
Yellow cards
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.833.83safe0.94–3.050.71–2.951.65–6.00safer0.67–3.330.42–3.241.09–6.56actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.405.30safe1.48–4.310.84–3.952.33–8.26safer1.10–4.700.41–4.381.51–9.09actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.07–2.00 0.00–2.26 | 1.00 | 1.58 0.72–2.44 0.48–2.69 | 2.00 | 2.62 0.79–4.44 0.29–4.94 | 3.00 | 25% 25% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.83 1.97–5.68 1.47–6.18 | 4.00 | 4.93 3.22–6.64 2.75–7.11 | 4.00 | 8.76 5.19–12.32 4.23–13.29 | 8.00 | 29% 58% |
| Total shots | 12.08 8.38–15.79 7.35–16.82 | 13.00 | 13.65 10.27–17.03 9.34–17.96 | 10.00 | 25.73 18.65–32.81 16.69–34.77 | 23.00 | 34% 58% |
| Shots in box | 7.47 4.96–9.99 4.09–10.85 | 8.00 | 9.20 6.90–11.50 6.10–12.29 | 3.00 | 16.67 11.85–21.49 10.19–23.15 | 11.00 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.11 1.52–4.69 0.99–5.23 | 4.00 | 4.13 2.71–5.54 2.23–6.03 | 4.00 | 7.23 4.24–10.23 3.21–11.25 | 8.00 | 28% 14% 57% |
| Corners | 4.44 2.23–6.64 1.63–7.24 | 2.00 | 5.57 3.59–7.55 3.05–8.09 | 1.00 | 10.01 5.82–14.19 4.69–15.32 | 3.00 | 30% 58% |
| Possession % | 36.20 29.89–42.52 28.29–44.12 | 58.00 | 63.42 57.10–69.73 55.50–71.33 | 42.00 | — | — | 95% |
| Passes | 339 274–404 256–422 | 240 | 560 495–624 477–642 | 570 | 898 769–1028 733–1064 | 810 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.52 57.31–65.74 56.01–67.04 | — | 76.20 71.69–80.71 70.36–82.04 | — | — | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 11.21 8.36–14.07 7.47–14.96 | 12.00 | 9.50 6.56–12.45 5.64–13.36 | 11.00 | 20.72 14.91–26.52 13.11–28.32 | 23.00 | 60% 31% |
| Offsides | 2.67 1.46–3.88 1.12–4.22 | 4.00 | 1.65 0.49–2.82 0.16–3.15 | 0.00 | 4.32 1.95–6.69 1.27–7.37 | 4.00 | 59% 18% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.94–3.05 0.67–3.33 | 2.00 | 1.83 0.71–2.95 0.42–3.24 | 1.00 | 3.83 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.56 | 3.00 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.48–4.31 1.10–4.70 | 2.00 | 2.40 0.84–3.95 0.41–4.38 | 3.00 | 5.30 2.33–8.26 1.51–9.09 | 5.00 | 50% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.