Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Paul Tierney · England
Goals
30%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.532.75safe0.26–2.180.67–2.390.93–4.58safer0.00–2.440.43–2.640.42–5.08actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.304.318.62safe2.45–6.162.60–6.025.05–12.18safer1.95–6.662.14–6.494.08–13.15actual7.006.0013.00
Total shots
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1912.6426.83safe10.48–17.899.26–16.0219.74–33.91safer9.45–18.928.33–16.9517.78–35.87actual19.0015.0034.00
Shots in box
52%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction9.378.6017.97safe6.85–11.896.30–10.9013.15–22.79safer5.99–12.755.50–11.7011.49–24.45actual15.008.0023.00
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.843.677.51safe2.26–5.432.25–5.084.51–10.51safer1.72–5.961.76–5.573.49–11.53actual5.007.0012.00
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.8210.51safe3.48–7.892.84–6.806.33–14.69safer2.89–8.492.30–7.345.19–15.83actual3.0011.0014.00
Possession %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction43.4657.17safe37.15–49.7850.85–63.48safer35.55–51.3849.25–65.08actual33.0067.00
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction346447793safe280–411383–512663–923safer263–429365–530628–958actual211425636
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction63.0168.86safe58.80–67.2364.36–73.37safer57.50–68.5363.03–74.70
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.179.9820.15safe7.32–13.037.03–12.9214.35–25.96safer6.43–13.926.12–13.8412.55–27.76actual17.0018.0035.00
Offsides
41%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.653.39safe0.54–2.950.49–2.811.02–5.76safer0.19–3.300.15–3.140.34–6.44actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
29%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.983.45safe0.41–2.520.86–3.101.27–5.63safer0.14–2.790.57–3.390.71–6.19actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.11safe0.00–0.190.00–0.270.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.410.00–0.76actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.972.715.68safe1.55–4.381.16–4.272.71–8.65safer1.16–4.770.73–4.701.89–9.47actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.26–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 2.00 | 1.53 0.67–2.39 0.43–2.64 | 2.00 | 2.75 0.93–4.58 0.42–5.08 | 4.00 | 30% 25% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.30 2.45–6.16 1.95–6.66 | 7.00 | 4.31 2.60–6.02 2.14–6.49 | 6.00 | 8.62 5.05–12.18 4.08–13.15 | 13.00 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 14.19 10.48–17.89 9.45–18.92 | 19.00 | 12.64 9.26–16.02 8.33–16.95 | 15.00 | 26.83 19.74–33.91 17.78–35.87 | 34.00 | 58% 35% |
| Shots in box | 9.37 6.85–11.89 5.99–12.75 | 15.00 | 8.60 6.30–10.90 5.50–11.70 | 8.00 | 17.97 13.15–22.79 11.49–24.45 | 23.00 | 52% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 2.26–5.43 1.72–5.96 | 5.00 | 3.67 2.25–5.08 1.76–5.57 | 7.00 | 7.51 4.51–10.51 3.49–11.53 | 12.00 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.48–7.89 2.89–8.49 | 3.00 | 4.82 2.84–6.80 2.30–7.34 | 11.00 | 10.51 6.33–14.69 5.19–15.83 | 14.00 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 43.46 37.15–49.78 35.55–51.38 | 33.00 | 57.17 50.85–63.48 49.25–65.08 | 67.00 | — | — | 18% 79% |
| Passes | 346 280–411 263–429 | 211 | 447 383–512 365–530 | 425 | 793 663–923 628–958 | 636 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.01 58.80–67.23 57.50–68.53 | — | 68.86 64.36–73.37 63.03–74.70 | — | — | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 10.17 7.32–13.03 6.43–13.92 | 17.00 | 9.98 7.03–12.92 6.12–13.84 | 18.00 | 20.15 14.35–25.96 12.55–27.76 | 35.00 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.54–2.95 0.19–3.30 | 1.00 | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.15–3.14 | 2.00 | 3.39 1.02–5.76 0.34–6.44 | 3.00 | 41% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.41–2.52 0.14–2.79 | 1.00 | 1.98 0.86–3.10 0.57–3.39 | 3.00 | 3.45 1.27–5.63 0.71–6.19 | 4.00 | 29% 22% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 1.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 1.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.55–4.38 1.16–4.77 | 4.00 | 2.71 1.16–4.27 0.73–4.70 | 4.00 | 5.68 2.71–8.65 1.89–9.47 | 8.00 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+