Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Tom Nield · England
Goals
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.630.923.55safe1.67–3.590.06–1.781.73–5.38safer1.41–3.850.00–2.031.23–5.88actual3.004.007.00
Shots on target
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.243.539.77safe4.39–8.101.82–5.246.21–13.34safer3.89–8.601.36–5.715.24–14.31actual4.005.009.00
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction15.989.6225.60safe12.28–19.696.24–13.0018.52–32.68safer11.25–20.725.31–13.9316.56–34.65actual10.008.0018.00
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction12.126.6318.74safe9.60–14.634.32–8.9313.92–23.56safer8.73–15.503.53–9.7212.26–25.22actual6.006.0012.00
Blocked shots
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.322.246.56safe2.73–5.900.82–3.653.56–9.56safer2.20–6.440.34–4.142.54–10.58actual1.000.001.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.813.9510.77safe4.61–9.021.98–5.936.58–14.95safer4.01–9.611.44–6.475.45–16.08actual4.002.006.00
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction57.4342.08safe51.12–63.7535.76–48.40safer49.52–65.3534.17–50.00actual59.0041.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction527362889safe462–592298–427760–1019safer444–610280–445724–1055actual458329787
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction74.4168.64safe70.20–78.6364.14–73.15safer68.90–79.9362.81–74.48
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8811.1822.05safe8.02–13.738.23–14.1216.25–27.85safer7.13–14.627.31–15.0414.45–29.66actual11.0012.0023.00
Offsides
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.233.296.52safe2.02–4.442.13–4.464.15–8.90safer1.68–4.781.80–4.793.47–9.57actual8.004.0012.00
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.492.123.61safe0.43–2.541.00–3.241.43–5.78safer0.16–2.810.71–3.530.87–6.35actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
25%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.533.726.25safe1.11–3.942.17–5.283.28–9.22safer0.73–4.331.74–5.712.46–10.04actual1.001.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.63 1.67–3.59 1.41–3.85 | 3.00 | 0.92 0.06–1.78 0.00–2.03 | 4.00 | 3.55 1.73–5.38 1.23–5.88 | 7.00 | 74% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.24 4.39–8.10 3.89–8.60 | 4.00 | 3.53 1.82–5.24 1.36–5.71 | 5.00 | 9.77 6.21–13.34 5.24–14.31 | 9.00 | 76% 15% |
| Total shots | 15.98 12.28–19.69 11.25–20.72 | 10.00 | 9.62 6.24–13.00 5.31–13.93 | 8.00 | 25.60 18.52–32.68 16.56–34.65 | 18.00 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 12.12 9.60–14.63 8.73–15.50 | 6.00 | 6.63 4.32–8.93 3.53–9.72 | 6.00 | 18.74 13.92–23.56 12.26–25.22 | 12.00 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.73–5.90 2.20–6.44 | 1.00 | 2.24 0.82–3.65 0.34–4.14 | 0.00 | 6.56 3.56–9.56 2.54–10.58 | 1.00 | 73% 15% |
| Corners | 6.81 4.61–9.02 4.01–9.61 | 4.00 | 3.95 1.98–5.93 1.44–6.47 | 2.00 | 10.77 6.58–14.95 5.45–16.08 | 6.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 57.43 51.12–63.75 49.52–65.35 | 59.00 | 42.08 35.76–48.40 34.17–50.00 | 41.00 | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 527 462–592 444–610 | 458 | 362 298–427 280–445 | 329 | 889 760–1019 724–1055 | 787 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.41 70.20–78.63 68.90–79.93 | — | 68.64 64.14–73.15 62.81–74.48 | — | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 10.88 8.02–13.73 7.13–14.62 | 11.00 | 11.18 8.23–14.12 7.31–15.04 | 12.00 | 22.05 16.25–27.85 14.45–29.66 | 23.00 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 3.23 2.02–4.44 1.68–4.78 | 8.00 | 3.29 2.13–4.46 1.80–4.79 | 4.00 | 6.52 4.15–8.90 3.47–9.57 | 12.00 | 41% 16% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.43–2.54 0.16–2.81 | 0.00 | 2.12 1.00–3.24 0.71–3.53 | 0.00 | 3.61 1.43–5.78 0.87–6.35 | 0.00 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.53 1.11–3.94 0.73–4.33 | 1.00 | 3.72 2.17–5.28 1.74–5.71 | 1.00 | 6.25 3.28–9.22 2.46–10.04 | 2.00 | 25% 15% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+