Championship·Regular Season - 8·
Championship·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: John Busby · England
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.122.60safe0.51–2.440.26–1.980.78–4.42safer0.25–2.700.02–2.230.27–4.93actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.314.048.34safe2.45–6.162.33–5.754.78–11.91safer1.95–6.661.86–6.213.81–12.88actual6.005.0011.00
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6610.7224.38safe9.95–17.367.34–14.1017.30–31.46safer8.92–18.396.41–15.0315.34–33.42actual20.008.0028.00
Shots in box
60%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.306.7815.08safe5.78–10.824.47–9.0810.26–19.89safer4.92–11.683.68–9.878.60–21.55actual15.007.0022.00
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.223.227.44safe2.63–5.801.81–4.644.44–10.44safer2.10–6.341.32–5.133.42–11.46actual7.001.008.00
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.974.6210.59safe3.77–8.182.65–6.606.41–14.78safer3.17–8.772.11–7.145.28–15.91actual9.007.0016.00
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.8750.44safe43.55–56.1944.12–56.76safer41.96–57.7942.52–58.35actual54.0046.00
Passes
43%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction423444868safe358–489380–509738–998safer340–506362–527702–1033actual325326651
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction79.4378.09safe75.21–83.6473.58–82.60safer73.91–84.9472.25–83.93
Fouls
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.689.9321.61safe8.82–14.546.99–12.8815.81–27.42safer7.94–15.426.07–13.8014.01–29.22actual16.009.0025.00
Offsides
15%
15%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction1.413.014.42safe0.20–2.621.85–4.182.05–6.80safer0.00–2.961.52–4.511.37–7.47actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
30%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.394.25safe0.80–2.921.27–3.512.07–6.42safer0.53–3.190.98–3.801.51–6.99actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.675.66safe1.58–4.411.12–4.222.70–8.63safer1.19–4.800.68–4.661.88–9.45actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 2.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.02–2.23 | 2.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.27–4.93 | 4.00 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.31 2.45–6.16 1.95–6.66 | 6.00 | 4.04 2.33–5.75 1.86–6.21 | 5.00 | 8.34 4.78–11.91 3.81–12.88 | 11.00 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.66 9.95–17.36 8.92–18.39 | 20.00 | 10.72 7.34–14.10 6.41–15.03 | 8.00 | 24.38 17.30–31.46 15.34–33.42 | 28.00 | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 8.30 5.78–10.82 4.92–11.68 | 15.00 | 6.78 4.47–9.08 3.68–9.87 | 7.00 | 15.08 10.26–19.89 8.60–21.55 | 22.00 | 60% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 2.63–5.80 2.10–6.34 | 7.00 | 3.22 1.81–4.64 1.32–5.13 | 1.00 | 7.44 4.44–10.44 3.42–11.46 | 8.00 | 57% 14% 29% |
| Corners | 5.97 3.77–8.18 3.17–8.77 | 9.00 | 4.62 2.65–6.60 2.11–7.14 | 7.00 | 10.59 6.41–14.78 5.28–15.91 | 16.00 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 49.87 43.55–56.19 41.96–57.79 | 54.00 | 50.44 44.12–56.76 42.52–58.35 | 46.00 | — | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 423 358–489 340–506 | 325 | 444 380–509 362–527 | 326 | 868 738–998 702–1033 | 651 | 43% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.43 75.21–83.64 73.91–84.94 | — | 78.09 73.58–82.60 72.25–83.93 | — | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 11.68 8.82–14.54 7.94–15.42 | 16.00 | 9.93 6.99–12.88 6.07–13.80 | 9.00 | 21.61 15.81–27.42 14.01–29.22 | 25.00 | 61% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.41 0.20–2.62 0.00–2.96 | 2.00 | 3.01 1.85–4.18 1.52–4.51 | 2.00 | 4.42 2.05–6.80 1.37–7.47 | 4.00 | 15% 15% 70% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.80–2.92 0.53–3.19 | 2.00 | 2.39 1.27–3.51 0.98–3.80 | 1.00 | 4.25 2.07–6.42 1.51–6.99 | 3.00 | 30% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.58–4.41 1.19–4.80 | 3.00 | 2.67 1.12–4.22 0.68–4.66 | 4.00 | 5.66 2.70–8.63 1.88–9.45 | 7.00 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.