Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Thomas Parsons · England
Goals
47%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.002.42safe0.45–2.380.14–1.860.59–4.24safer0.19–2.640.00–2.110.09–4.74actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.597.76safe2.31–6.021.89–5.304.20–11.32safer1.81–6.521.42–5.773.23–12.29actual6.003.009.00
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3712.3624.73safe8.67–16.078.98–15.7417.65–31.81safer7.64–17.118.05–16.6715.69–33.78actual30.0013.0043.00
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.297.2515.54safe5.78–10.814.94–9.5510.72–20.35safer4.91–11.674.15–10.349.06–22.02actual14.0011.0025.00
Blocked shots
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.573.547.11safe1.99–5.152.12–4.954.11–10.11safer1.45–5.691.64–5.443.09–11.13actual9.004.0013.00
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.584.4410.03safe3.38–7.792.47–6.425.84–14.21safer2.78–8.381.93–6.964.71–15.34actual10.003.0013.00
Possession %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction56.4043.63safe50.09–62.7237.31–49.95safer48.49–64.3235.71–51.55actual60.0040.00
Passes
76%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction462379841safe397–527314–443711–971safer379–545297–461676–1006actual469317786
Pass accuracy %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction68.6165.11safe64.39–72.8260.60–69.62safer63.09–74.1259.27–70.95
Fouls
86%
homeawaytotalprediction7.3212.5919.91safe4.47–10.189.64–15.5314.11–25.71safer3.58–11.068.72–16.4512.30–27.51actual8.0013.0021.00
Offsides
65%
18%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.511.243.76safe1.30–3.720.08–2.411.38–6.13safer0.96–4.070.00–2.740.71–6.81actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.492.093.58safe0.44–2.550.96–3.211.40–5.76safer0.17–2.820.67–3.500.84–6.32actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
34%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.584.80safe0.81–3.641.02–4.131.83–7.77safer0.42–4.020.59–4.561.01–8.59actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.38 0.19–2.64 | 2.00 | 1.00 0.14–1.86 0.00–2.11 | 2.00 | 2.42 0.59–4.24 0.09–4.74 | 4.00 | 47% 27% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.31–6.02 1.81–6.52 | 6.00 | 3.59 1.89–5.30 1.42–5.77 | 3.00 | 7.76 4.20–11.32 3.23–12.29 | 9.00 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 12.37 8.67–16.07 7.64–17.11 | 30.00 | 12.36 8.98–15.74 8.05–16.67 | 13.00 | 24.73 17.65–31.81 15.69–33.78 | 43.00 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 8.29 5.78–10.81 4.91–11.67 | 14.00 | 7.25 4.94–9.55 4.15–10.34 | 11.00 | 15.54 10.72–20.35 9.06–22.02 | 25.00 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.99–5.15 1.45–5.69 | 9.00 | 3.54 2.12–4.95 1.64–5.44 | 4.00 | 7.11 4.11–10.11 3.09–11.13 | 13.00 | 43% 15% 42% |
| Corners | 5.58 3.38–7.79 2.78–8.38 | 10.00 | 4.44 2.47–6.42 1.93–6.96 | 3.00 | 10.03 5.84–14.21 4.71–15.34 | 13.00 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 56.40 50.09–62.72 48.49–64.32 | 60.00 | 43.63 37.31–49.95 35.71–51.55 | 40.00 | — | — | 77% 19% |
| Passes | 462 397–527 379–545 | 469 | 379 314–443 297–461 | 317 | 841 711–971 676–1006 | 786 | 76% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.61 64.39–72.82 63.09–74.12 | — | 65.11 60.60–69.62 59.27–70.95 | — | — | — | 65% 31% |
| Fouls | 7.32 4.47–10.18 3.58–11.06 | 8.00 | 12.59 9.64–15.53 8.72–16.45 | 13.00 | 19.91 14.11–25.71 12.30–27.51 | 21.00 | 86% |
| Offsides | 2.51 1.30–3.72 0.96–4.07 | 3.00 | 1.24 0.08–2.41 0.00–2.74 | 0.00 | 3.76 1.38–6.13 0.71–6.81 | 3.00 | 65% 18% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.55 0.17–2.82 | 2.00 | 2.09 0.96–3.21 0.67–3.50 | 2.00 | 3.58 1.40–5.76 0.84–6.32 | 4.00 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 1.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 1.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.22 0.81–3.64 0.42–4.02 | 1.00 | 2.58 1.02–4.13 0.59–4.56 | 4.00 | 4.80 1.83–7.77 1.01–8.59 | 5.00 | 34% 19% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.