Championship·Regular Season - 8·
Championship·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Tim Robinson · England
Goals
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.062.61safe0.59–2.510.20–1.920.79–4.44safer0.33–2.770.00–2.170.29–4.94actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.433.228.65safe3.58–7.291.51–4.925.09–12.21safer3.08–7.791.04–5.394.12–13.18actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction16.259.0725.32safe12.54–19.955.70–12.4518.24–32.40safer11.51–20.984.77–13.3816.28–34.37actual12.008.0020.00
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction11.196.8618.05safe8.68–13.714.55–9.1613.23–22.86safer7.81–14.573.76–9.9511.57–24.53actual6.003.009.00
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.213.047.25safe2.63–5.791.62–4.454.25–10.25safer2.09–6.331.14–4.943.23–11.27actual2.002.004.00
Corners
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.374.2410.61safe4.16–8.572.27–6.226.43–14.79safer3.56–9.171.73–6.765.29–15.93actual8.001.009.00
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.3947.96safe45.07–57.7041.64–54.28safer43.47–59.3040.05–55.88actual62.0038.00
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction426393819safe361–491328–458689–949safer343–509311–475654–984actual467291758
Pass accuracy %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction69.3565.06safe65.13–73.5660.56–69.57safer63.83–74.8659.23–70.90
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0511.2622.31safe8.19–13.918.32–14.2116.51–28.11safer7.31–14.797.40–15.1314.71–29.92actual12.0015.0027.00
Offsides
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.172.024.19safe0.96–3.380.86–3.181.82–6.56safer0.61–3.720.53–3.521.14–7.24actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
24%
18%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.564.22safe0.60–2.721.44–3.682.04–6.39safer0.33–2.991.15–3.971.48–6.96actual4.004.008.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
19%
15%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction1.893.385.28safe0.48–3.311.83–4.942.31–8.24safer0.09–3.701.40–5.371.49–9.07actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.59–2.51 0.33–2.77 | 2.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 1.00 | 2.61 0.79–4.44 0.29–4.94 | 3.00 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.43 3.58–7.29 3.08–7.79 | 5.00 | 3.22 1.51–4.92 1.04–5.39 | 3.00 | 8.65 5.09–12.21 4.12–13.18 | 8.00 | 72% 17% |
| Total shots | 16.25 12.54–19.95 11.51–20.98 | 12.00 | 9.07 5.70–12.45 4.77–13.38 | 8.00 | 25.32 18.24–32.40 16.28–34.37 | 20.00 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 11.19 8.68–13.71 7.81–14.57 | 6.00 | 6.86 4.55–9.16 3.76–9.95 | 3.00 | 18.05 13.23–22.86 11.57–24.53 | 9.00 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 4.21 2.63–5.79 2.09–6.33 | 2.00 | 3.04 1.62–4.45 1.14–4.94 | 2.00 | 7.25 4.25–10.25 3.23–11.27 | 4.00 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 6.37 4.16–8.57 3.56–9.17 | 8.00 | 4.24 2.27–6.22 1.73–6.76 | 1.00 | 10.61 6.43–14.79 5.29–15.93 | 9.00 | 69% 21% |
| Possession % | 51.39 45.07–57.70 43.47–59.30 | 62.00 | 47.96 41.64–54.28 40.05–55.88 | 38.00 | — | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 426 361–491 343–509 | 467 | 393 328–458 311–475 | 291 | 819 689–949 654–984 | 758 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.35 65.13–73.56 63.83–74.86 | — | 65.06 60.56–69.57 59.23–70.90 | — | — | — | 68% 28% |
| Fouls | 11.05 8.19–13.91 7.31–14.79 | 12.00 | 11.26 8.32–14.21 7.40–15.13 | 15.00 | 22.31 16.51–28.11 14.71–29.92 | 27.00 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.17 0.96–3.38 0.61–3.72 | 2.00 | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.53–3.52 | 0.00 | 4.19 1.82–6.56 1.14–7.24 | 2.00 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.60–2.72 0.33–2.99 | 4.00 | 2.56 1.44–3.68 1.15–3.97 | 4.00 | 4.22 2.04–6.39 1.48–6.96 | 8.00 | 24% 18% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 1.89 0.48–3.31 0.09–3.70 | 2.00 | 3.38 1.83–4.94 1.40–5.37 | 3.00 | 5.28 2.31–8.24 1.49–9.07 | 5.00 | 19% 15% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+