Championship·Regular Season - 8·
Championship·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Gavin Ward · England
Goals
34%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.552.94safe0.43–2.350.69–2.411.12–4.76safer0.17–2.610.45–2.660.61–5.27actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.424.438.85safe2.57–6.282.72–6.135.29–12.41safer2.07–6.782.25–6.604.32–13.38actual4.007.0011.00
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2011.5524.75safe9.49–16.908.17–14.9317.66–31.83safer8.46–17.937.24–15.8615.70–33.79actual8.0019.0027.00
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction9.498.4617.95safe6.97–12.016.16–10.7613.13–22.77safer6.11–12.875.36–11.5611.47–24.43actual6.0012.0018.00
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.723.837.55safe2.14–5.312.41–5.244.55–10.55safer1.61–5.841.93–5.733.53–11.57actual0.004.004.00
Corners
39%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction5.065.4710.53safe2.86–7.273.49–7.456.35–14.72safer2.26–7.862.96–7.995.22–15.85actual2.003.005.00
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction45.2554.62safe38.94–51.5748.30–60.94safer37.34–53.1746.71–62.54actual40.0060.00
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction405512918safe340–471448–577788–1048safer322–488430–595753–1083actual323660983
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction67.8175.29safe63.59–72.0270.79–79.80safer62.29–73.3269.46–81.13
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7810.1221.90safe8.92–14.637.18–13.0716.10–27.70safer8.03–15.526.26–13.9914.29–29.51actual8.007.0015.00
Offsides
43%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.533.27safe0.53–2.940.37–2.690.89–5.64safer0.18–3.290.04–3.030.22–6.31actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
33%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.983.67safe0.64–2.750.86–3.101.50–5.85safer0.36–3.020.57–3.390.93–6.41actual1.004.005.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.692.555.24safe1.27–4.100.99–4.102.27–8.20safer0.89–4.490.56–4.531.45–9.02actual6.003.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.43–2.35 0.17–2.61 | 2.00 | 1.55 0.69–2.41 0.45–2.66 | 1.00 | 2.94 1.12–4.76 0.61–5.27 | 3.00 | 34% 24% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.57–6.28 2.07–6.78 | 4.00 | 4.43 2.72–6.13 2.25–6.60 | 7.00 | 8.85 5.29–12.41 4.32–13.38 | 11.00 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Total shots | 13.20 9.49–16.90 8.46–17.93 | 8.00 | 11.55 8.17–14.93 7.24–15.86 | 19.00 | 24.75 17.66–31.83 15.70–33.79 | 27.00 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.49 6.97–12.01 6.11–12.87 | 6.00 | 8.46 6.16–10.76 5.36–11.56 | 12.00 | 17.95 13.13–22.77 11.47–24.43 | 18.00 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.72 2.14–5.31 1.61–5.84 | 0.00 | 3.83 2.41–5.24 1.93–5.73 | 4.00 | 7.55 4.55–10.55 3.53–11.57 | 4.00 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 5.06 2.86–7.27 2.26–7.86 | 2.00 | 5.47 3.49–7.45 2.96–7.99 | 3.00 | 10.53 6.35–14.72 5.22–15.85 | 5.00 | 39% 49% |
| Possession % | 45.25 38.94–51.57 37.34–53.17 | 40.00 | 54.62 48.30–60.94 46.71–62.54 | 60.00 | — | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 405 340–471 322–488 | 323 | 512 448–577 430–595 | 660 | 918 788–1048 753–1083 | 983 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.81 63.59–72.02 62.29–73.32 | — | 75.29 70.79–79.80 69.46–81.13 | — | — | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 11.78 8.92–14.63 8.03–15.52 | 8.00 | 10.12 7.18–13.07 6.26–13.99 | 7.00 | 21.90 16.10–27.70 14.29–29.51 | 15.00 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.53–2.94 0.18–3.29 | 0.00 | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.04–3.03 | 2.00 | 3.27 0.89–5.64 0.22–6.31 | 2.00 | 43% 23% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.75 0.36–3.02 | 1.00 | 1.98 0.86–3.10 0.57–3.39 | 4.00 | 3.67 1.50–5.85 0.93–6.41 | 5.00 | 33% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.27–4.10 0.89–4.49 | 6.00 | 2.55 0.99–4.10 0.56–4.53 | 3.00 | 5.24 2.27–8.20 1.45–9.02 | 9.00 | 43% 18% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.