Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.302.97safe0.70–2.640.44–2.151.15–4.79safer0.45–2.890.21–2.380.67–5.27
Shots on target
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.994.479.46safe3.13–6.862.73–6.215.86–13.07safer2.64–7.352.26–6.684.90–14.02
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7013.6927.39safe9.78–17.6210.13–17.2519.90–34.88safer8.68–18.729.17–18.2117.85–36.93
Shots in box
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction9.008.3317.33safe6.06–11.945.65–11.0111.71–22.95safer5.23–12.774.91–11.7510.14–24.52
Blocked shots
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.544.307.84safe1.66–5.422.65–5.954.30–11.37safer1.11–5.962.16–6.453.27–12.41
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.7610.15safe3.18–7.602.76–6.765.94–14.36safer2.60–8.182.23–7.294.83–15.47
Possession %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction47.6552.87safe40.86–54.4446.08–59.65safer39.19–56.1144.41–61.32
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction456481936safe389–523414–547803–1070safer370–541397–565767–1106
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction72.2077.34safe68.17–76.2373.01–81.66safer66.88–77.5371.70–82.97
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8213.3725.19safe8.98–14.6610.42–16.3119.40–30.97safer8.23–15.419.67–17.0617.90–32.47
Offsides
71%
14%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction3.191.484.67safe2.03–4.350.39–2.572.42–6.92safer1.73–4.650.10–2.861.83–7.51
Yellow cards
32%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.564.61safe1.00–3.101.43–3.692.43–6.79safer0.74–3.371.14–3.981.87–7.35
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.913.065.97safe1.47–4.341.50–4.612.97–8.96safer1.09–4.731.08–5.042.16–9.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.67 0.70–2.64 0.45–2.89 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.38 | 2.97 1.15–4.79 0.67–5.27 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.99 3.13–6.86 2.64–7.35 | 4.47 2.73–6.21 2.26–6.68 | 9.46 5.86–13.07 4.90–14.02 | 50% 37% |
| Total shots | 13.70 9.78–17.62 8.68–18.72 | 13.69 10.13–17.25 9.17–18.21 | 27.39 19.90–34.88 17.85–36.93 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 9.00 6.06–11.94 5.23–12.77 | 8.33 5.65–11.01 4.91–11.75 | 17.33 11.71–22.95 10.14–24.52 | 52% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.42 1.11–5.96 | 4.30 2.65–5.95 2.16–6.45 | 7.84 4.30–11.37 3.27–12.41 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.60 2.60–8.18 | 4.76 2.76–6.76 2.23–7.29 | 10.15 5.94–14.36 4.83–15.47 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 47.65 40.86–54.44 39.19–56.11 | 52.87 46.08–59.65 44.41–61.32 | — | 36% 60% |
| Passes | 456 389–523 370–541 | 481 414–547 397–565 | 936 803–1070 767–1106 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.20 68.17–76.23 66.88–77.53 | 77.34 73.01–81.66 71.70–82.97 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 11.82 8.98–14.66 8.23–15.41 | 13.37 10.42–16.31 9.67–17.06 | 25.19 19.40–30.97 17.90–32.47 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 3.19 2.03–4.35 1.73–4.65 | 1.48 0.39–2.57 0.10–2.86 | 4.67 2.42–6.92 1.83–7.51 | 71% 14% 15% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 1.00–3.10 0.74–3.37 | 2.56 1.43–3.69 1.14–3.98 | 4.61 2.43–6.79 1.87–7.35 | 32% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.47–4.34 1.09–4.73 | 3.06 1.50–4.61 1.08–5.04 | 5.97 2.97–8.96 2.16–9.77 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.