Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.502.82safe0.35–2.280.65–2.360.99–4.64safer0.10–2.540.42–2.580.51–5.12
Shots on target
37%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.114.618.72safe2.25–5.972.87–6.355.12–12.33safer1.76–6.462.40–6.824.16–13.28
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2213.2825.50safe8.29–16.149.71–16.8418.01–32.98safer7.20–17.248.76–17.8015.96–35.04
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction7.869.1717.03safe4.92–10.806.49–11.8511.40–22.65safer4.09–11.635.75–12.599.84–24.22
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.393.807.19safe1.51–5.282.14–5.453.66–10.73safer0.97–5.821.65–5.942.62–11.76
Corners
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.784.729.50safe2.57–7.002.72–6.725.29–13.72safer2.00–7.572.19–7.254.18–14.82
Possession %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction53.0648.51safe46.27–59.8541.73–55.30safer44.60–61.5240.06–56.97
Passes
70%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction484421905safe417–552354–487772–1039safer399–570337–505736–1075
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction71.0074.64safe66.97–75.0370.31–78.96safer65.68–76.3369.00–80.27
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4111.3822.79safe8.57–14.248.43–14.3217.00–28.57safer7.81–15.007.69–15.0715.50–30.07
Offsides
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.352.886.23safe2.19–4.511.79–3.973.98–8.48safer1.89–4.811.50–4.263.39–9.07
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.972.144.12safe0.93–3.021.01–3.271.94–6.30safer0.66–3.290.72–3.561.38–6.85
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.815.71safe1.46–4.331.25–4.372.72–8.70safer1.07–4.720.83–4.791.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.28 0.10–2.54 | 1.50 0.65–2.36 0.42–2.58 | 2.82 0.99–4.64 0.51–5.12 | 33% 25% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.25–5.97 1.76–6.46 | 4.61 2.87–6.35 2.40–6.82 | 8.72 5.12–12.33 4.16–13.28 | 37% 14% 50% |
| Total shots | 12.22 8.29–16.14 7.20–17.24 | 13.28 9.71–16.84 8.76–17.80 | 25.50 18.01–32.98 15.96–35.04 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.86 4.92–10.80 4.09–11.63 | 9.17 6.49–11.85 5.75–12.59 | 17.03 11.40–22.65 9.84–24.22 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.51–5.28 0.97–5.82 | 3.80 2.14–5.45 1.65–5.94 | 7.19 3.66–10.73 2.62–11.76 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 4.78 2.57–7.00 2.00–7.57 | 4.72 2.72–6.72 2.19–7.25 | 9.50 5.29–13.72 4.18–14.82 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 53.06 46.27–59.85 44.60–61.52 | 48.51 41.73–55.30 40.06–56.97 | — | 58% 37% |
| Passes | 484 417–552 399–570 | 421 354–487 337–505 | 905 772–1039 736–1075 | 70% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.00 66.97–75.03 65.68–76.33 | 74.64 70.31–78.96 69.00–80.27 | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 11.41 8.57–14.24 7.81–15.00 | 11.38 8.43–14.32 7.69–15.07 | 22.79 17.00–28.57 15.50–30.07 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 3.35 2.19–4.51 1.89–4.81 | 2.88 1.79–3.97 1.50–4.26 | 6.23 3.98–8.48 3.39–9.07 | 49% 16% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.93–3.02 0.66–3.29 | 2.14 1.01–3.27 0.72–3.56 | 4.12 1.94–6.30 1.38–6.85 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.46–4.33 1.07–4.72 | 2.81 1.25–4.37 0.83–4.79 | 5.71 2.72–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.