Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.352.99safe0.68–2.620.49–2.201.17–4.82safer0.43–2.870.26–2.430.69–5.30
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.409.75safe3.48–7.212.66–6.156.15–13.36safer2.99–7.702.20–6.615.19–14.31
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6813.4129.10safe11.76–19.619.85–16.9821.61–36.58safer10.67–20.708.89–17.9419.56–38.64
Shots in box
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction10.138.6818.81safe7.19–13.076.00–11.3613.19–24.43safer6.36–13.905.26–12.1011.62–26.00
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.063.427.48safe2.17–5.941.77–5.083.95–11.02safer1.63–6.481.28–5.572.91–12.05
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.344.649.98safe3.13–7.562.64–6.645.77–14.19safer2.56–8.132.10–7.174.66–15.30
Possession %
57%
39%
homeawayprediction51.7347.94safe44.94–58.5241.16–54.73safer43.27–60.1939.49–56.40
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction460427887safe393–527361–494754–1021safer375–545343–511718–1057
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction68.8971.65safe64.86–72.9267.33–75.98safer63.57–74.2166.02–77.28
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8210.6321.45safe7.98–13.667.69–13.5815.67–27.23safer7.23–14.416.94–14.3214.16–28.74
Offsides
51%
19%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.501.954.45safe1.34–3.660.86–3.042.20–6.71safer1.04–3.970.57–3.331.61–7.30
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.054.02safe0.93–3.030.92–3.181.85–6.20safer0.66–3.290.63–3.471.29–6.76
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
32%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.626.59safe1.53–4.402.06–5.183.59–9.58safer1.14–4.791.64–5.602.78–10.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.68–2.62 0.43–2.87 | 1.35 0.49–2.20 0.26–2.43 | 2.99 1.17–4.82 0.69–5.30 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.35 3.48–7.21 2.99–7.70 | 4.40 2.66–6.15 2.20–6.61 | 9.75 6.15–13.36 5.19–14.31 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 15.68 11.76–19.61 10.67–20.70 | 13.41 9.85–16.98 8.89–17.94 | 29.10 21.61–36.58 19.56–38.64 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 10.13 7.19–13.07 6.36–13.90 | 8.68 6.00–11.36 5.26–12.10 | 18.81 13.19–24.43 11.62–26.00 | 59% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 2.17–5.94 1.63–6.48 | 3.42 1.77–5.08 1.28–5.57 | 7.48 3.95–11.02 2.91–12.05 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.34 3.13–7.56 2.56–8.13 | 4.64 2.64–6.64 2.10–7.17 | 9.98 5.77–14.19 4.66–15.30 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 51.73 44.94–58.52 43.27–60.19 | 47.94 41.16–54.73 39.49–56.40 | — | 57% 39% |
| Passes | 460 393–527 375–545 | 427 361–494 343–511 | 887 754–1021 718–1057 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.89 64.86–72.92 63.57–74.21 | 71.65 67.33–75.98 66.02–77.28 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 10.82 7.98–13.66 7.23–14.41 | 10.63 7.69–13.58 6.94–14.32 | 21.45 15.67–27.23 14.16–28.74 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 2.50 1.34–3.66 1.04–3.97 | 1.95 0.86–3.04 0.57–3.33 | 4.45 2.20–6.71 1.61–7.30 | 51% 19% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.66–3.29 | 2.05 0.92–3.18 0.63–3.47 | 4.02 1.85–6.20 1.29–6.76 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.53–4.40 1.14–4.79 | 3.62 2.06–5.18 1.64–5.60 | 6.59 3.59–9.58 2.78–10.39 | 32% 15% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.