Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.242.92safe0.71–2.640.39–2.101.10–4.74safer0.46–2.900.16–2.330.62–5.22
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.754.089.83safe3.89–7.612.34–5.836.23–13.44safer3.40–8.101.87–6.295.27–14.39
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction16.6212.9929.61safe12.69–20.549.43–16.5522.12–37.10safer11.60–21.638.47–17.5120.07–39.15
Shots in box
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction10.458.6119.06safe7.51–13.395.93–11.2913.44–24.69safer6.68–14.225.19–12.0311.87–26.25
Blocked shots
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.703.157.85safe2.82–6.581.50–4.804.31–11.38safer2.27–7.121.00–5.293.28–12.42
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.044.2710.31safe3.83–8.262.27–6.276.10–14.53safer3.25–8.831.74–6.814.99–15.63
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.4145.40safe47.62–61.2038.62–52.19safer45.95–62.8736.95–53.86
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction470389858safe403–537322–455725–992safer384–555305–473689–1028
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction73.6972.77safe69.66–77.7268.45–77.09safer68.37–79.0167.14–78.40
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9113.1324.04safe8.07–13.7510.18–16.0718.26–29.82safer7.32–14.519.44–16.8216.75–31.33
Offsides
31%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.534.56safe0.87–3.191.44–3.632.31–6.82safer0.57–3.491.15–3.921.72–7.41
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.474.55safe1.03–3.131.34–3.602.37–6.73safer0.76–3.401.05–3.891.81–7.28
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.120.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
30%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.686.53safe1.41–4.282.13–5.243.54–9.52safer1.02–4.671.70–5.662.73–10.34
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.71–2.64 0.46–2.90 | 1.24 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.33 | 2.92 1.10–4.74 0.62–5.22 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.75 3.89–7.61 3.40–8.10 | 4.08 2.34–5.83 1.87–6.29 | 9.83 6.23–13.44 5.27–14.39 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 16.62 12.69–20.54 11.60–21.63 | 12.99 9.43–16.55 8.47–17.51 | 29.61 22.12–37.10 20.07–39.15 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 10.45 7.51–13.39 6.68–14.22 | 8.61 5.93–11.29 5.19–12.03 | 19.06 13.44–24.69 11.87–26.25 | 62% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.70 2.82–6.58 2.27–7.12 | 3.15 1.50–4.80 1.00–5.29 | 7.85 4.31–11.38 3.28–12.42 | 65% 23% |
| Corners | 6.04 3.83–8.26 3.25–8.83 | 4.27 2.27–6.27 1.74–6.81 | 10.31 6.10–14.53 4.99–15.63 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 54.41 47.62–61.20 45.95–62.87 | 45.40 38.62–52.19 36.95–53.86 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 470 403–537 384–555 | 389 322–455 305–473 | 858 725–992 689–1028 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.69 69.66–77.72 68.37–79.01 | 72.77 68.45–77.09 67.14–78.40 | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 10.91 8.07–13.75 7.32–14.51 | 13.13 10.18–16.07 9.44–16.82 | 24.04 18.26–29.82 16.75–31.33 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.49 | 2.53 1.44–3.63 1.15–3.92 | 4.56 2.31–6.82 1.72–7.41 | 31% 19% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.76–3.40 | 2.47 1.34–3.60 1.05–3.89 | 4.55 2.37–6.73 1.81–7.28 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.41–4.28 1.02–4.67 | 3.68 2.13–5.24 1.70–5.66 | 6.53 3.54–9.52 2.73–10.34 | 30% 15% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.