Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.152.44safe0.32–2.260.29–2.000.62–4.26safer0.07–2.510.07–2.230.14–4.74
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.113.847.95safe2.25–5.982.09–5.584.35–11.56safer1.76–6.471.63–6.043.39–12.51
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9512.4024.35safe8.03–15.878.84–15.9616.86–31.84safer6.93–16.977.88–16.9214.81–33.89
Shots in box
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.458.3016.76safe5.51–11.405.62–10.9811.13–22.38safer4.68–12.234.88–11.729.57–23.95
Blocked shots
41%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.493.567.05safe1.61–5.371.91–5.223.52–10.59safer1.06–5.911.42–5.712.48–11.62
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.024.879.89safe2.81–7.232.87–6.875.67–14.10safer2.23–7.812.34–7.404.57–15.21
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.3955.95safe37.60–51.1849.17–62.74safer35.93–52.8547.49–64.41
Passes
22%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction423516939safe356–490449–582805–1073safer338–509432–600770–1108
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction67.5277.64safe63.50–71.5573.31–81.96safer62.20–72.8572.01–83.27
Fouls
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0810.1623.24safe10.25–15.927.22–13.1117.46–29.03safer9.49–16.686.47–13.8515.96–30.53
Offsides
44%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.493.25safe0.60–2.920.40–2.580.99–5.50safer0.30–3.220.11–2.870.40–6.09
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.903.59safe0.64–2.740.77–3.031.41–5.76safer0.37–3.000.48–3.320.85–6.32
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
43%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.862.745.61safe1.43–4.301.19–4.302.61–8.60safer1.04–4.690.76–4.721.80–9.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.26 0.07–2.51 | 1.15 0.29–2.00 0.07–2.23 | 2.44 0.62–4.26 0.14–4.74 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.25–5.98 1.76–6.47 | 3.84 2.09–5.58 1.63–6.04 | 7.95 4.35–11.56 3.39–12.51 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 11.95 8.03–15.87 6.93–16.97 | 12.40 8.84–15.96 7.88–16.92 | 24.35 16.86–31.84 14.81–33.89 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.45 5.51–11.40 4.68–12.23 | 8.30 5.62–10.98 4.88–11.72 | 16.76 11.13–22.38 9.57–23.95 | 47% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.61–5.37 1.06–5.91 | 3.56 1.91–5.22 1.42–5.71 | 7.05 3.52–10.59 2.48–11.62 | 41% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 5.02 2.81–7.23 2.23–7.81 | 4.87 2.87–6.87 2.34–7.40 | 9.89 5.67–14.10 4.57–15.21 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 44.39 37.60–51.18 35.93–52.85 | 55.95 49.17–62.74 47.49–64.41 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 423 356–490 338–509 | 516 449–582 432–600 | 939 805–1073 770–1108 | 22% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.52 63.50–71.55 62.20–72.85 | 77.64 73.31–81.96 72.01–83.27 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 13.08 10.25–15.92 9.49–16.68 | 10.16 7.22–13.11 6.47–13.85 | 23.24 17.46–29.03 15.96–30.53 | 69% 24% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.49 0.40–2.58 0.11–2.87 | 3.25 0.99–5.50 0.40–6.09 | 44% 23% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.74 0.37–3.00 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.59 1.41–5.76 0.85–6.32 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 2.74 1.19–4.30 0.76–4.72 | 5.61 2.61–8.60 1.80–9.41 | 43% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.