Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.102.53safe0.46–2.400.25–1.960.71–4.36safer0.21–2.650.02–2.190.23–4.84
Shots on target
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.003.228.22safe3.14–6.861.48–4.974.62–11.83safer2.65–7.351.02–5.433.66–12.78
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction14.469.9724.43safe10.53–18.386.41–13.5316.94–31.91safer9.44–19.475.45–14.4914.89–33.97
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction9.277.5016.76safe6.32–12.214.82–10.1811.14–22.38safer5.49–13.044.08–10.919.57–23.95
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.162.907.06safe2.27–6.041.25–4.553.52–10.59safer1.73–6.580.76–5.052.49–11.63
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.714.149.85safe3.50–7.932.14–6.145.64–14.06safer2.93–8.501.60–6.674.53–15.17
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction56.0844.61safe49.29–62.8737.83–51.40safer47.62–64.5436.16–53.07
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction528418946safe461–595352–485813–1080safer443–613334–502777–1116
Pass accuracy %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction74.9571.07safe70.92–78.9866.75–75.39safer69.63–80.2765.44–76.70
Fouls
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction9.4512.6022.05safe6.61–12.299.66–15.5516.27–27.83safer5.85–13.048.91–16.3014.76–29.34
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.743.30safe0.41–2.730.64–2.831.05–5.56safer0.10–3.030.36–3.120.46–6.15
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.943.42safe0.44–2.540.81–3.061.25–5.60safer0.17–2.800.52–3.360.69–6.16
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
27%
17%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.263.145.40safe0.82–3.691.58–4.702.40–8.39safer0.43–4.081.16–5.121.59–9.20
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.40 0.21–2.65 | 1.10 0.25–1.96 0.02–2.19 | 2.53 0.71–4.36 0.23–4.84 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 5.00 3.14–6.86 2.65–7.35 | 3.22 1.48–4.97 1.02–5.43 | 8.22 4.62–11.83 3.66–12.78 | 67% 21% |
| Total shots | 14.46 10.53–18.38 9.44–19.47 | 9.97 6.41–13.53 5.45–14.49 | 24.43 16.94–31.91 14.89–33.97 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.27 6.32–12.21 5.49–13.04 | 7.50 4.82–10.18 4.08–10.91 | 16.76 11.14–22.38 9.57–23.95 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 4.16 2.27–6.04 1.73–6.58 | 2.90 1.25–4.55 0.76–5.05 | 7.06 3.52–10.59 2.49–11.63 | 61% 14% 25% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.50–7.93 2.93–8.50 | 4.14 2.14–6.14 1.60–6.67 | 9.85 5.64–14.06 4.53–15.17 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 56.08 49.29–62.87 47.62–64.54 | 44.61 37.83–51.40 36.16–53.07 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 528 461–595 443–613 | 418 352–485 334–502 | 946 813–1080 777–1116 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.95 70.92–78.98 69.63–80.27 | 71.07 66.75–75.39 65.44–76.70 | — | 67% 29% |
| Fouls | 9.45 6.61–12.29 5.85–13.04 | 12.60 9.66–15.55 8.91–16.30 | 22.05 16.27–27.83 14.76–29.34 | 22% 71% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.10–3.03 | 1.74 0.64–2.83 0.36–3.12 | 3.30 1.05–5.56 0.46–6.15 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.54 0.17–2.80 | 1.94 0.81–3.06 0.52–3.36 | 3.42 1.25–5.60 0.69–6.16 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.26 0.82–3.69 0.43–4.08 | 3.14 1.58–4.70 1.16–5.12 | 5.40 2.40–8.39 1.59–9.20 | 27% 17% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.