Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
27%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.332.56safe0.26–2.200.48–2.180.74–4.38safer0.01–2.450.25–2.410.26–4.86
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.154.438.57safe2.28–6.012.68–6.174.97–12.18safer1.79–6.502.22–6.644.01–13.13
Total shots
53%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4712.6326.10safe9.55–17.409.07–16.1918.62–33.59safer8.46–18.498.11–17.1516.57–35.64
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.838.2317.05safe5.88–11.775.55–10.9111.43–22.68safer5.05–12.604.81–11.659.86–24.24
Blocked shots
32%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.173.927.09safe1.29–5.052.27–5.573.56–10.63safer0.75–5.601.78–6.072.52–11.66
Corners
37%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.675.239.90safe2.46–6.883.23–7.235.69–14.11safer1.88–7.462.70–7.764.58–15.22
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.0055.62safe37.21–50.7948.83–62.40safer35.54–52.4647.16–64.07
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction410482891safe342–477415–548757–1025safer324–495398–566722–1061
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction62.2571.05safe58.22–66.2866.73–75.38safer56.93–67.5765.42–76.69
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8610.7621.62safe8.02–13.707.81–13.7015.84–27.40safer7.27–14.457.07–14.4514.33–28.91
Offsides
67%
17%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.701.304.01safe1.54–3.860.21–2.401.75–6.26safer1.24–4.160.00–2.691.16–6.85
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.833.59safe0.71–2.810.70–2.961.41–5.77safer0.45–3.080.41–3.250.86–6.33
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.933.015.94safe1.50–4.371.45–4.572.95–8.93safer1.11–4.761.03–4.992.14–9.75
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.33 0.48–2.18 0.25–2.41 | 2.56 0.74–4.38 0.26–4.86 | 34% 27% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.28–6.01 1.79–6.50 | 4.43 2.68–6.17 2.22–6.64 | 8.57 4.97–12.18 4.01–13.13 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 13.47 9.55–17.40 8.46–18.49 | 12.63 9.07–16.19 8.11–17.15 | 26.10 18.62–33.59 16.57–35.64 | 53% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.83 5.88–11.77 5.05–12.60 | 8.23 5.55–10.91 4.81–11.65 | 17.05 11.43–22.68 9.86–24.24 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.17 1.29–5.05 0.75–5.60 | 3.92 2.27–5.57 1.78–6.07 | 7.09 3.56–10.63 2.52–11.66 | 32% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 4.67 2.46–6.88 1.88–7.46 | 5.23 3.23–7.23 2.70–7.76 | 9.90 5.69–14.11 4.58–15.22 | 37% 51% |
| Possession % | 44.00 37.21–50.79 35.54–52.46 | 55.62 48.83–62.40 47.16–64.07 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 410 342–477 324–495 | 482 415–548 398–566 | 891 757–1025 722–1061 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.25 58.22–66.28 56.93–67.57 | 71.05 66.73–75.38 65.42–76.69 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 10.86 8.02–13.70 7.27–14.45 | 10.76 7.81–13.70 7.07–14.45 | 21.62 15.84–27.40 14.33–28.91 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 2.70 1.54–3.86 1.24–4.16 | 1.30 0.21–2.40 0.00–2.69 | 4.01 1.75–6.26 1.16–6.85 | 67% 17% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.45–3.08 | 1.83 0.70–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.59 1.41–5.77 0.86–6.33 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.50–4.37 1.11–4.76 | 3.01 1.45–4.57 1.03–4.99 | 5.94 2.95–8.93 2.14–9.75 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.