Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.162.57safe0.44–2.380.31–2.020.75–4.39safer0.19–2.630.08–2.240.27–4.87
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.374.248.61safe2.51–6.232.50–5.985.01–12.22safer2.02–6.722.03–6.454.05–13.17
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2712.4526.71safe10.34–18.198.88–16.0119.23–34.20safer9.25–19.287.92–16.9717.18–36.25
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.907.9816.89safe5.96–11.855.30–10.6711.26–22.51safer5.13–12.674.57–11.409.70–24.08
Blocked shots
42%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.603.657.25safe1.72–5.481.99–5.303.71–10.78safer1.18–6.031.50–5.792.68–11.82
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.094.659.74safe2.88–7.312.65–6.655.53–13.95safer2.31–7.882.11–7.184.42–15.06
Possession %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction49.2551.31safe42.46–56.0444.52–58.09safer40.79–57.7142.85–59.77
Passes
51%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction478474952safe411–545408–541819–1086safer393–563390–558783–1122
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction68.8673.32safe64.83–72.8969.00–77.65safer63.54–74.1867.69–78.96
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9710.4720.44safe7.14–12.817.52–13.4114.66–26.22safer6.38–13.576.77–14.1613.15–27.73
Offsides
65%
17%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.641.333.97safe1.48–3.800.23–2.421.71–6.22safer1.18–4.100.00–2.711.12–6.81
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.793.50safe0.66–2.760.66–2.921.32–5.68safer0.39–3.030.37–3.210.77–6.24
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.045.86safe1.38–4.251.49–4.602.87–8.85safer0.99–4.641.06–5.032.05–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.16 0.31–2.02 0.08–2.24 | 2.57 0.75–4.39 0.27–4.87 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.37 2.51–6.23 2.02–6.72 | 4.24 2.50–5.98 2.03–6.45 | 8.61 5.01–12.22 4.05–13.17 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 14.27 10.34–18.19 9.25–19.28 | 12.45 8.88–16.01 7.92–16.97 | 26.71 19.23–34.20 17.18–36.25 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.90 5.96–11.85 5.13–12.67 | 7.98 5.30–10.67 4.57–11.40 | 16.89 11.26–22.51 9.70–24.08 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 1.72–5.48 1.18–6.03 | 3.65 1.99–5.30 1.50–5.79 | 7.25 3.71–10.78 2.68–11.82 | 42% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 5.09 2.88–7.31 2.31–7.88 | 4.65 2.65–6.65 2.11–7.18 | 9.74 5.53–13.95 4.42–15.06 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 49.25 42.46–56.04 40.79–57.71 | 51.31 44.52–58.09 42.85–59.77 | — | 43% 52% |
| Passes | 478 411–545 393–563 | 474 408–541 390–558 | 952 819–1086 783–1122 | 51% 49% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.86 64.83–72.89 63.54–74.18 | 73.32 69.00–77.65 67.69–78.96 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 9.97 7.14–12.81 6.38–13.57 | 10.47 7.52–13.41 6.77–14.16 | 20.44 14.66–26.22 13.15–27.73 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.64 1.48–3.80 1.18–4.10 | 1.33 0.23–2.42 0.00–2.71 | 3.97 1.71–6.22 1.12–6.81 | 65% 17% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.39–3.03 | 1.79 0.66–2.92 0.37–3.21 | 3.50 1.32–5.68 0.77–6.24 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.81 1.38–4.25 0.99–4.64 | 3.04 1.49–4.60 1.06–5.03 | 5.86 2.87–8.85 2.05–9.66 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.