Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.552.95safe0.43–2.370.69–2.401.13–4.77safer0.18–2.620.47–2.630.65–5.25
Shots on target
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.385.049.41safe2.52–6.243.29–6.785.81–13.02safer2.03–6.732.83–7.254.85–13.98
Total shots
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4014.0827.48safe9.47–17.3210.51–17.6419.99–34.96safer8.38–18.419.56–18.6017.94–37.01
Shots in box
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction8.249.4017.64safe5.30–11.196.71–12.0812.02–23.26safer4.47–12.025.98–12.8110.45–24.83
Blocked shots
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.973.977.95safe2.09–5.862.32–5.634.41–11.48safer1.55–6.401.83–6.123.38–12.52
Corners
46%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.134.9810.11safe2.92–7.352.98–6.985.90–14.32safer2.35–7.922.45–7.514.79–15.43
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction47.1253.94safe40.33–53.9147.16–60.73safer38.66–55.5845.49–62.40
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction430497927safe363–497431–564794–1061safer345–515413–581758–1097
Pass accuracy %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction72.1475.64safe68.11–76.1771.32–79.96safer66.82–77.4670.01–81.27
Fouls
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6312.6723.30safe7.80–13.479.72–15.6117.52–29.08safer7.04–14.238.98–16.3616.02–30.59
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.663.58safe0.75–3.070.57–2.761.32–5.83safer0.45–3.370.28–3.050.73–6.42
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.013.76safe0.69–2.790.88–3.141.58–5.94safer0.43–3.060.59–3.431.02–6.49
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.162.866.02safe1.72–4.601.31–4.423.03–9.02safer1.34–4.980.88–4.842.22–9.83
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.55 0.69–2.40 0.47–2.63 | 2.95 1.13–4.77 0.65–5.25 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.24 2.03–6.73 | 5.04 3.29–6.78 2.83–7.25 | 9.41 5.81–13.02 4.85–13.98 | 35% 52% |
| Total shots | 13.40 9.47–17.32 8.38–18.41 | 14.08 10.51–17.64 9.56–18.60 | 27.48 19.99–34.96 17.94–37.01 | 41% 51% |
| Shots in box | 8.24 5.30–11.19 4.47–12.02 | 9.40 6.71–12.08 5.98–12.81 | 17.64 12.02–23.26 10.45–24.83 | 35% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 2.09–5.86 1.55–6.40 | 3.97 2.32–5.63 1.83–6.12 | 7.95 4.41–11.48 3.38–12.52 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Corners | 5.13 2.92–7.35 2.35–7.92 | 4.98 2.98–6.98 2.45–7.51 | 10.11 5.90–14.32 4.79–15.43 | 46% 42% |
| Possession % | 47.12 40.33–53.91 38.66–55.58 | 53.94 47.16–60.73 45.49–62.40 | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 430 363–497 345–515 | 497 431–564 413–581 | 927 794–1061 758–1097 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.14 68.11–76.17 66.82–77.46 | 75.64 71.32–79.96 70.01–81.27 | — | 30% 65% |
| Fouls | 10.63 7.80–13.47 7.04–14.23 | 12.67 9.72–15.61 8.98–16.36 | 23.30 17.52–29.08 16.02–30.59 | 30% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.75–3.07 0.45–3.37 | 1.66 0.57–2.76 0.28–3.05 | 3.58 1.32–5.83 0.73–6.42 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.43–3.06 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.76 1.58–5.94 1.02–6.49 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.16 1.72–4.60 1.34–4.98 | 2.86 1.31–4.42 0.88–4.84 | 6.02 3.03–9.02 2.22–9.83 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.