Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
24%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.102.84safe0.77–2.710.24–1.951.02–4.66safer0.52–2.960.01–2.180.54–5.14
Shots on target
55%
13%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.823.948.76safe2.96–6.682.20–5.695.16–12.37safer2.47–7.171.74–6.154.20–13.32
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7211.6325.35safe9.80–17.658.06–15.1917.86–32.84safer8.71–18.747.10–16.1515.81–34.89
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction10.147.1717.31safe7.20–13.084.49–9.8511.69–22.93safer6.37–13.913.75–10.5910.12–24.50
Blocked shots
41%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.463.516.97safe1.57–5.341.86–5.173.43–10.51safer1.03–5.881.37–5.662.40–11.54
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.164.3910.55safe3.95–8.382.39–6.396.34–14.76safer3.38–8.951.85–6.925.23–15.87
Possession %
56%
40%
homeawayprediction51.7148.26safe44.92–58.5041.48–55.05safer43.25–60.1739.80–56.72
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction425394818safe358–492327–460685–952safer339–510310–478649–988
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction66.4969.63safe62.46–70.5265.31–73.95safer61.17–71.8164.00–75.26
Fouls
54%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5110.5022.01safe8.68–14.357.55–13.4416.23–27.80safer7.92–15.116.81–14.1914.73–29.30
Offsides
70%
14%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction3.491.775.26safe2.32–4.650.68–2.873.00–7.51safer2.02–4.950.39–3.152.41–8.10
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.733.34safe0.57–2.670.60–2.861.17–5.52safer0.30–2.930.31–3.150.61–6.08
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.295.91safe1.18–4.051.73–4.842.91–8.90safer0.79–4.441.31–5.272.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 0.77–2.71 0.52–2.96 | 1.10 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 2.84 1.02–4.66 0.54–5.14 | 52% 24% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.82 2.96–6.68 2.47–7.17 | 3.94 2.20–5.69 1.74–6.15 | 8.76 5.16–12.37 4.20–13.32 | 55% 13% 32% |
| Total shots | 13.72 9.80–17.65 8.71–18.74 | 11.63 8.06–15.19 7.10–16.15 | 25.35 17.86–32.84 15.81–34.89 | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 10.14 7.20–13.08 6.37–13.91 | 7.17 4.49–9.85 3.75–10.59 | 17.31 11.69–22.93 10.12–24.50 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 1.57–5.34 1.03–5.88 | 3.51 1.86–5.17 1.37–5.66 | 6.97 3.43–10.51 2.40–11.54 | 41% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 6.16 3.95–8.38 3.38–8.95 | 4.39 2.39–6.39 1.85–6.92 | 10.55 6.34–14.76 5.23–15.87 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 51.71 44.92–58.50 43.25–60.17 | 48.26 41.48–55.05 39.80–56.72 | — | 56% 40% |
| Passes | 425 358–492 339–510 | 394 327–460 310–478 | 818 685–952 649–988 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.49 62.46–70.52 61.17–71.81 | 69.63 65.31–73.95 64.00–75.26 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 11.51 8.68–14.35 7.92–15.11 | 10.50 7.55–13.44 6.81–14.19 | 22.01 16.23–27.80 14.73–29.30 | 54% 37% |
| Offsides | 3.49 2.32–4.65 2.02–4.95 | 1.77 0.68–2.87 0.39–3.15 | 5.26 3.00–7.51 2.41–8.10 | 70% 14% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.30–2.93 | 1.73 0.60–2.86 0.31–3.15 | 3.34 1.17–5.52 0.61–6.08 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.29 1.73–4.84 1.31–5.27 | 5.91 2.91–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 31% 16% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+