Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.332.58safe0.29–2.220.47–2.180.76–4.41safer0.04–2.480.24–2.410.28–4.89
Shots on target
34%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.824.538.35safe1.96–5.682.79–6.274.74–11.95safer1.47–6.172.32–6.743.79–12.91
Total shots
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8313.4825.30safe7.90–15.759.92–17.0417.82–32.79safer6.81–16.848.96–18.0015.77–34.84
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction7.319.2716.58safe4.37–10.256.59–11.9510.95–22.20safer3.54–11.085.85–12.689.39–23.77
Blocked shots
31%
14%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.304.147.44safe1.42–5.182.49–5.793.91–10.98safer0.88–5.731.99–6.282.87–12.01
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.845.029.87safe2.63–7.053.02–7.025.65–14.08safer2.05–7.632.49–7.564.54–15.19
Possession %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction47.4453.51safe40.65–54.2346.72–60.29safer38.98–55.9045.05–61.97
Passes
35%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction420467887safe353–487401–534753–1021safer335–505383–551718–1056
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction69.2074.42safe65.17–73.2370.09–78.74safer63.88–74.5268.78–80.05
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8912.0423.93safe9.05–14.729.09–14.9818.14–29.71safer8.29–15.488.35–15.7316.64–31.21
Offsides
58%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.333.57safe1.08–3.400.24–2.431.32–5.82safer0.77–3.700.00–2.720.73–6.41
Yellow cards
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.853.89safe0.99–3.090.72–2.981.72–6.07safer0.73–3.360.43–3.271.16–6.63
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.082.575.66safe1.65–4.521.02–4.132.67–8.65safer1.26–4.910.59–4.561.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.22 0.04–2.48 | 1.33 0.47–2.18 0.24–2.41 | 2.58 0.76–4.41 0.28–4.89 | 35% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 3.82 1.96–5.68 1.47–6.17 | 4.53 2.79–6.27 2.32–6.74 | 8.35 4.74–11.95 3.79–12.91 | 34% 14% 53% |
| Total shots | 11.83 7.90–15.75 6.81–16.84 | 13.48 9.92–17.04 8.96–18.00 | 25.30 17.82–32.79 15.77–34.84 | 33% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.31 4.37–10.25 3.54–11.08 | 9.27 6.59–11.95 5.85–12.68 | 16.58 10.95–22.20 9.39–23.77 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 1.42–5.18 0.88–5.73 | 4.14 2.49–5.79 1.99–6.28 | 7.44 3.91–10.98 2.87–12.01 | 31% 14% 55% |
| Corners | 4.84 2.63–7.05 2.05–7.63 | 5.02 3.02–7.02 2.49–7.56 | 9.87 5.65–14.08 4.54–15.19 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 47.44 40.65–54.23 38.98–55.90 | 53.51 46.72–60.29 45.05–61.97 | — | 34% 62% |
| Passes | 420 353–487 335–505 | 467 401–534 383–551 | 887 753–1021 718–1056 | 35% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.20 65.17–73.23 63.88–74.52 | 74.42 70.09–78.74 68.78–80.05 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 11.89 9.05–14.72 8.29–15.48 | 12.04 9.09–14.98 8.35–15.73 | 23.93 18.14–29.71 16.64–31.21 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.24 1.08–3.40 0.77–3.70 | 1.33 0.24–2.43 0.00–2.72 | 3.57 1.32–5.82 0.73–6.41 | 58% 20% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 0.99–3.09 0.73–3.36 | 1.85 0.72–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 3.89 1.72–6.07 1.16–6.63 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.65–4.52 1.26–4.91 | 2.57 1.02–4.13 0.59–4.56 | 5.66 2.67–8.65 1.85–9.46 | 50% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.