Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
27%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.062.45safe0.42–2.360.21–1.920.63–4.28safer0.17–2.610.00–2.150.15–4.76
Shots on target
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.493.608.09safe2.63–6.361.85–5.344.48–11.69safer2.14–6.851.39–5.803.53–12.65
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6610.0023.65safe9.73–17.586.43–13.5616.17–31.14safer8.64–18.675.47–14.5214.11–33.19
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.397.0616.45safe6.45–12.334.38–9.7410.82–22.07safer5.62–13.163.64–10.489.26–23.64
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.992.956.93safe2.10–5.871.29–4.603.40–10.47safer1.56–6.410.80–5.092.36–11.50
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.314.269.57safe3.10–7.532.26–6.265.36–13.79safer2.53–8.101.73–6.794.25–14.90
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction49.0249.64safe42.23–55.8142.86–56.43safer40.56–57.4841.19–58.10
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction482472955safe415–549406–539821–1088safer397–568388–556785–1124
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction70.1474.23safe66.11–74.1769.91–78.56safer64.82–75.4668.60–79.87
Fouls
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0610.1922.25safe9.22–14.907.25–13.1416.47–28.03safer8.47–15.666.50–13.8814.97–29.54
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.663.27safe0.45–2.770.57–2.761.02–5.52safer0.15–3.070.28–3.040.43–6.11
Yellow cards
31%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.043.69safe0.60–2.690.91–3.171.51–5.86safer0.33–2.960.62–3.460.95–6.42
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.433.135.55safe0.99–3.861.57–4.682.56–8.54safer0.60–4.251.14–5.111.75–9.36
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.42–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.45 0.63–4.28 0.15–4.76 | 44% 27% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.49 2.63–6.36 2.14–6.85 | 3.60 1.85–5.34 1.39–5.80 | 8.09 4.48–11.69 3.53–12.65 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Total shots | 13.66 9.73–17.58 8.64–18.67 | 10.00 6.43–13.56 5.47–14.52 | 23.65 16.17–31.14 14.11–33.19 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.39 6.45–12.33 5.62–13.16 | 7.06 4.38–9.74 3.64–10.48 | 16.45 10.82–22.07 9.26–23.64 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.10–5.87 1.56–6.41 | 2.95 1.29–4.60 0.80–5.09 | 6.93 3.40–10.47 2.36–11.50 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 5.31 3.10–7.53 2.53–8.10 | 4.26 2.26–6.26 1.73–6.79 | 9.57 5.36–13.79 4.25–14.90 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 49.02 42.23–55.81 40.56–57.48 | 49.64 42.86–56.43 41.19–58.10 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 482 415–549 397–568 | 472 406–539 388–556 | 955 821–1088 785–1124 | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.14 66.11–74.17 64.82–75.46 | 74.23 69.91–78.56 68.60–79.87 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 12.06 9.22–14.90 8.47–15.66 | 10.19 7.25–13.14 6.50–13.88 | 22.25 16.47–28.03 14.97–29.54 | 61% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.66 0.57–2.76 0.28–3.04 | 3.27 1.02–5.52 0.43–6.11 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.69 0.33–2.96 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.69 1.51–5.86 0.95–6.42 | 31% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.43 0.99–3.86 0.60–4.25 | 3.13 1.57–4.68 1.14–5.11 | 5.55 2.56–8.54 1.75–9.36 | 30% 17% 53% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+