Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
27%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.352.49safe0.17–2.110.50–2.200.67–4.31safer0.00–2.360.27–2.430.19–4.79
Shots on target
40%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.773.987.75safe1.91–5.632.24–5.724.14–11.35safer1.42–6.121.77–6.193.19–12.31
Total shots
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1913.3926.58safe9.27–17.119.83–16.9519.09–34.07safer8.17–18.218.87–17.9117.04–36.12
Shots in box
39%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction7.948.5716.51safe5.00–10.885.89–11.2510.89–22.13safer4.17–11.715.15–11.999.32–23.70
Blocked shots
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.894.037.92safe2.00–5.772.38–5.684.38–11.45safer1.46–6.311.89–6.183.35–12.49
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction5.115.3110.42safe2.89–7.323.31–7.316.20–14.63safer2.32–7.892.78–7.855.10–15.74
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction50.0349.80safe43.24–56.8243.01–56.58safer41.57–58.4941.34–58.25
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction394375769safe326–461309–442635–902safer308–479291–459599–938
Pass accuracy %
25%
70%
homeawayprediction61.0665.70safe57.03–65.0961.37–70.02safer55.74–66.3860.06–71.33
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4313.1024.53safe8.59–14.2710.15–16.0418.74–30.31safer7.83–15.029.40–16.7917.24–31.81
Offsides
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.453.12safe0.51–2.830.35–2.540.87–5.38safer0.21–3.140.07–2.830.28–5.97
Yellow cards
39%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.733.47safe0.70–2.790.60–2.861.29–5.65safer0.43–3.060.31–3.150.74–6.21
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
39%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.785.40safe1.19–4.061.22–4.342.41–8.40safer0.80–4.450.80–4.761.60–9.21
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.35 0.50–2.20 0.27–2.43 | 2.49 0.67–4.31 0.19–4.79 | 32% 27% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.77 1.91–5.63 1.42–6.12 | 3.98 2.24–5.72 1.77–6.19 | 7.75 4.14–11.35 3.19–12.31 | 40% 15% 46% |
| Total shots | 13.19 9.27–17.11 8.17–18.21 | 13.39 9.83–16.95 8.87–17.91 | 26.58 19.09–34.07 17.04–36.12 | 45% 48% |
| Shots in box | 7.94 5.00–10.88 4.17–11.71 | 8.57 5.89–11.25 5.15–11.99 | 16.51 10.89–22.13 9.32–23.70 | 39% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.89 2.00–5.77 1.46–6.31 | 4.03 2.38–5.68 1.89–6.18 | 7.92 4.38–11.45 3.35–12.49 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.89–7.32 2.32–7.89 | 5.31 3.31–7.31 2.78–7.85 | 10.42 6.20–14.63 5.10–15.74 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 50.03 43.24–56.82 41.57–58.49 | 49.80 43.01–56.58 41.34–58.25 | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 394 326–461 308–479 | 375 309–442 291–459 | 769 635–902 599–938 | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.06 57.03–65.09 55.74–66.38 | 65.70 61.37–70.02 60.06–71.33 | — | 25% 70% |
| Fouls | 11.43 8.59–14.27 7.83–15.02 | 13.10 10.15–16.04 9.40–16.79 | 24.53 18.74–30.31 17.24–31.81 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.51–2.83 0.21–3.14 | 1.45 0.35–2.54 0.07–2.83 | 3.12 0.87–5.38 0.28–5.97 | 43% 24% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.79 0.43–3.06 | 1.73 0.60–2.86 0.31–3.15 | 3.47 1.29–5.65 0.74–6.21 | 39% 22% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 2.78 1.22–4.34 0.80–4.76 | 5.40 2.41–8.40 1.60–9.21 | 39% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.