Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.342.60safe0.29–2.230.48–2.190.78–4.42safer0.04–2.480.26–2.420.30–4.90
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.103.938.03safe2.23–5.962.19–5.674.42–11.63safer1.74–6.451.72–6.143.47–12.59
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2410.9824.21safe9.31–17.167.41–14.5416.73–31.70safer8.22–18.256.45–15.5014.68–33.75
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.058.2416.29safe5.11–10.995.56–10.9210.67–21.92safer4.28–11.824.82–11.669.10–23.48
Blocked shots
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.163.257.41safe2.28–6.041.59–4.903.87–10.94safer1.73–6.581.10–5.392.83–11.98
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.174.8810.05safe2.96–7.392.88–6.885.84–14.26safer2.39–7.962.35–7.414.73–15.37
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.3754.38safe39.58–53.1647.60–61.17safer37.91–54.8345.93–62.84
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction391470861safe324–459403–536727–994safer306–477386–553691–1030
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction65.1869.71safe61.15–69.2165.39–74.03safer59.86–70.5064.08–75.34
Fouls
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0510.6621.71safe8.21–13.897.72–13.6115.93–27.49safer7.45–14.646.97–14.3614.42–29.00
Offsides
25%
21%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.412.123.52safe0.25–2.571.02–3.211.27–5.78safer0.00–2.870.73–3.500.68–6.37
Yellow cards
43%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.473.17safe0.66–2.760.34–2.601.00–5.35safer0.39–3.020.05–2.890.44–5.91
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
36%
18%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.432.725.14safe0.99–3.861.16–4.272.15–8.14safer0.60–4.250.74–4.701.34–8.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.23 0.04–2.48 | 1.34 0.48–2.19 0.26–2.42 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.10 2.23–5.96 1.74–6.45 | 3.93 2.19–5.67 1.72–6.14 | 8.03 4.42–11.63 3.47–12.59 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.24 9.31–17.16 8.22–18.25 | 10.98 7.41–14.54 6.45–15.50 | 24.21 16.73–31.70 14.68–33.75 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 8.05 5.11–10.99 4.28–11.82 | 8.24 5.56–10.92 4.82–11.66 | 16.29 10.67–21.92 9.10–23.48 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 4.16 2.28–6.04 1.73–6.58 | 3.25 1.59–4.90 1.10–5.39 | 7.41 3.87–10.94 2.83–11.98 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.17 2.96–7.39 2.39–7.96 | 4.88 2.88–6.88 2.35–7.41 | 10.05 5.84–14.26 4.73–15.37 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 46.37 39.58–53.16 37.91–54.83 | 54.38 47.60–61.17 45.93–62.84 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 391 324–459 306–477 | 470 403–536 386–553 | 861 727–994 691–1030 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.18 61.15–69.21 59.86–70.50 | 69.71 65.39–74.03 64.08–75.34 | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 11.05 8.21–13.89 7.45–14.64 | 10.66 7.72–13.61 6.97–14.36 | 21.71 15.93–27.49 14.42–29.00 | 49% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.41 0.25–2.57 0.00–2.87 | 2.12 1.02–3.21 0.73–3.50 | 3.52 1.27–5.78 0.68–6.37 | 25% 21% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.39–3.02 | 1.47 0.34–2.60 0.05–2.89 | 3.17 1.00–5.35 0.44–5.91 | 43% 23% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.43 0.99–3.86 0.60–4.25 | 2.72 1.16–4.27 0.74–4.70 | 5.14 2.15–8.14 1.34–8.95 | 36% 18% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.