Championship·Regular Season - 28·
Championship·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.442.64safe0.22–2.160.59–2.300.81–4.46safer0.00–2.410.36–2.530.33–4.94
Shots on target
31%
13%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.764.728.49safe1.90–5.632.98–6.474.88–12.09safer1.41–6.112.51–6.933.92–13.05
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4713.0025.47safe8.55–16.409.44–16.5717.99–32.96safer7.45–17.498.48–17.5315.94–35.01
Shots in box
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction9.208.8218.01safe6.25–12.146.14–11.5012.39–23.64safer5.42–12.975.40–12.2410.82–25.20
Blocked shots
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.734.298.02safe1.85–5.612.64–5.944.49–11.56safer1.31–6.162.15–6.443.45–12.59
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction5.125.3110.43safe2.90–7.333.31–7.316.21–14.64safer2.33–7.902.78–7.845.11–15.75
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction44.9655.42safe38.17–51.7548.64–62.21safer36.50–53.4246.97–63.88
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction346405751safe279–413338–471617–884safer260–431321–489581–920
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction58.6967.11safe54.66–62.7262.79–71.44safer53.37–64.0161.48–72.75
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1812.2324.41safe9.34–15.029.29–15.1818.63–30.19safer8.59–15.778.54–15.9317.12–31.70
Offsides
53%
20%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.361.704.06safe1.20–3.520.61–2.791.81–6.32safer0.90–3.820.32–3.081.22–6.91
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.143.74safe0.55–2.651.01–3.271.56–5.92safer0.28–2.910.72–3.561.00–6.48
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.032.615.64safe1.59–4.461.06–4.172.65–8.63safer1.20–4.850.63–4.591.83–9.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.44 0.59–2.30 0.36–2.53 | 2.64 0.81–4.46 0.33–4.94 | 31% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 3.76 1.90–5.63 1.41–6.11 | 4.72 2.98–6.47 2.51–6.93 | 8.49 4.88–12.09 3.92–13.05 | 31% 13% 56% |
| Total shots | 12.47 8.55–16.40 7.45–17.49 | 13.00 9.44–16.57 8.48–17.53 | 25.47 17.99–32.96 15.94–35.01 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 9.20 6.25–12.14 5.42–12.97 | 8.82 6.14–11.50 5.40–12.24 | 18.01 12.39–23.64 10.82–25.20 | 49% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 1.85–5.61 1.31–6.16 | 4.29 2.64–5.94 2.15–6.44 | 8.02 4.49–11.56 3.45–12.59 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Corners | 5.12 2.90–7.33 2.33–7.90 | 5.31 3.31–7.31 2.78–7.84 | 10.43 6.21–14.64 5.11–15.75 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 44.96 38.17–51.75 36.50–53.42 | 55.42 48.64–62.21 46.97–63.88 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 346 279–413 260–431 | 405 338–471 321–489 | 751 617–884 581–920 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 58.69 54.66–62.72 53.37–64.01 | 67.11 62.79–71.44 61.48–72.75 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 12.18 9.34–15.02 8.59–15.77 | 12.23 9.29–15.18 8.54–15.93 | 24.41 18.63–30.19 17.12–31.70 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.36 1.20–3.52 0.90–3.82 | 1.70 0.61–2.79 0.32–3.08 | 4.06 1.81–6.32 1.22–6.91 | 53% 20% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.65 0.28–2.91 | 2.14 1.01–3.27 0.72–3.56 | 3.74 1.56–5.92 1.00–6.48 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.03 1.59–4.46 1.20–4.85 | 2.61 1.06–4.17 0.63–4.59 | 5.64 2.65–8.63 1.83–9.44 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.