Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
25%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.552.69safe0.17–2.110.69–2.400.86–4.51safer0.00–2.360.46–2.630.38–4.99
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.914.318.23safe2.05–5.772.57–6.064.62–11.83safer1.56–6.262.11–6.523.67–12.79
Total shots
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8413.2327.06safe9.91–17.769.67–16.7919.58–34.55safer8.82–18.858.71–17.7517.53–36.60
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.218.2916.50safe5.27–11.155.61–10.9710.88–22.12safer4.44–11.984.87–11.719.31–23.69
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.863.697.54safe1.97–5.742.03–5.344.01–11.08safer1.43–6.281.54–5.832.97–12.11
Corners
38%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.665.139.79safe2.45–6.873.13–7.135.58–14.00safer1.87–7.452.60–7.664.47–15.11
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction45.3355.37safe38.54–52.1248.59–62.16safer36.87–53.7946.92–63.83
Passes
25%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction391470861safe324–458404–537727–995safer306–476386–554692–1030
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction65.3072.90safe61.27–69.3368.58–77.23safer59.97–70.6267.27–78.54
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6711.0322.70safe8.83–14.508.08–13.9716.91–28.48safer8.07–15.267.34–14.7215.41–29.98
Offsides
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.342.87safe0.37–2.690.25–2.440.62–5.13safer0.07–2.990.00–2.730.03–5.71
Yellow cards
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.693.47safe0.73–2.830.56–2.811.29–5.64safer0.46–3.100.27–3.110.73–6.20
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
41%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.752.765.51safe1.31–4.181.21–4.322.52–8.50safer0.92–4.570.78–4.741.71–9.31
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.55 0.69–2.40 0.46–2.63 | 2.69 0.86–4.51 0.38–4.99 | 28% 25% 47% |
| Shots on target | 3.91 2.05–5.77 1.56–6.26 | 4.31 2.57–6.06 2.11–6.52 | 8.23 4.62–11.83 3.67–12.79 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 13.84 9.91–17.76 8.82–18.85 | 13.23 9.67–16.79 8.71–17.75 | 27.06 19.58–34.55 17.53–36.60 | 51% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.21 5.27–11.15 4.44–11.98 | 8.29 5.61–10.97 4.87–11.71 | 16.50 10.88–22.12 9.31–23.69 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 1.97–5.74 1.43–6.28 | 3.69 2.03–5.34 1.54–5.83 | 7.54 4.01–11.08 2.97–12.11 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 4.66 2.45–6.87 1.87–7.45 | 5.13 3.13–7.13 2.60–7.66 | 9.79 5.58–14.00 4.47–15.11 | 38% 50% |
| Possession % | 45.33 38.54–52.12 36.87–53.79 | 55.37 48.59–62.16 46.92–63.83 | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 391 324–458 306–476 | 470 404–537 386–554 | 861 727–995 692–1030 | 25% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.30 61.27–69.33 59.97–70.62 | 72.90 68.58–77.23 67.27–78.54 | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 11.67 8.83–14.50 8.07–15.26 | 11.03 8.08–13.97 7.34–14.72 | 22.70 16.91–28.48 15.41–29.98 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.07–2.99 | 1.34 0.25–2.44 0.00–2.73 | 2.87 0.62–5.13 0.03–5.71 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.83 0.46–3.10 | 1.69 0.56–2.81 0.27–3.11 | 3.47 1.29–5.64 0.73–6.20 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.31–4.18 0.92–4.57 | 2.76 1.21–4.32 0.78–4.74 | 5.51 2.52–8.50 1.71–9.31 | 41% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.