Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.092.48safe0.41–2.350.24–1.950.65–4.30safer0.16–2.600.01–2.180.17–4.78
Shots on target
59%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.413.297.70safe2.54–6.271.55–5.044.10–11.31safer2.06–6.761.09–5.503.14–12.26
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction14.769.9424.70safe10.83–18.686.38–13.5017.21–32.19safer9.74–19.785.42–14.4615.16–34.24
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction9.097.2516.34safe6.14–12.034.57–9.9310.72–21.96safer5.32–12.863.83–10.679.15–23.53
Blocked shots
68%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.452.667.11safe2.57–6.331.01–4.323.58–10.65safer2.02–6.870.52–4.812.54–11.68
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.773.979.74safe3.56–7.981.97–5.985.53–13.96safer2.98–8.561.44–6.514.42–15.07
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.7445.77safe47.95–61.5338.98–52.55safer46.28–63.2037.31–54.22
Passes
73%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction478403880safe410–545336–469746–1014safer392–563319–487711–1049
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction70.8569.47safe66.82–74.8865.14–73.79safer65.53–76.1763.83–75.10
Fouls
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6511.9423.58safe8.81–14.488.99–14.8817.80–29.37safer8.05–15.248.24–15.6316.30–30.87
Offsides
31%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.003.58safe0.42–2.740.91–3.091.33–5.83safer0.12–3.040.62–3.380.74–6.42
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.083.82safe0.70–2.800.95–3.211.65–6.00safer0.43–3.060.66–3.501.09–6.56
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
31%
18%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.714.87safe0.72–3.591.16–4.271.88–7.86safer0.33–3.980.73–4.691.07–8.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 1.09 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 2.48 0.65–4.30 0.17–4.78 | 44% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.41 2.54–6.27 2.06–6.76 | 3.29 1.55–5.04 1.09–5.50 | 7.70 4.10–11.31 3.14–12.26 | 59% 14% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.76 10.83–18.68 9.74–19.78 | 9.94 6.38–13.50 5.42–14.46 | 24.70 17.21–32.19 15.16–34.24 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 9.09 6.14–12.03 5.32–12.86 | 7.25 4.57–9.93 3.83–10.67 | 16.34 10.72–21.96 9.15–23.53 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 4.45 2.57–6.33 2.02–6.87 | 2.66 1.01–4.32 0.52–4.81 | 7.11 3.58–10.65 2.54–11.68 | 68% 19% |
| Corners | 5.77 3.56–7.98 2.98–8.56 | 3.97 1.97–5.98 1.44–6.51 | 9.74 5.53–13.96 4.42–15.07 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 54.74 47.95–61.53 46.28–63.20 | 45.77 38.98–52.55 37.31–54.22 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 478 410–545 392–563 | 403 336–469 319–487 | 880 746–1014 711–1049 | 73% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.85 66.82–74.88 65.53–76.17 | 69.47 65.14–73.79 63.83–75.10 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 11.65 8.81–14.48 8.05–15.24 | 11.94 8.99–14.88 8.24–15.63 | 23.58 17.80–29.37 16.30–30.87 | 43% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 2.00 0.91–3.09 0.62–3.38 | 3.58 1.33–5.83 0.74–6.42 | 31% 22% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.43–3.06 | 2.08 0.95–3.21 0.66–3.50 | 3.82 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.56 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.16 0.72–3.59 0.33–3.98 | 2.71 1.16–4.27 0.73–4.69 | 4.87 1.88–7.86 1.07–8.68 | 31% 18% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.