Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.192.52safe0.36–2.290.34–2.050.70–4.34safer0.11–2.550.11–2.280.22–4.82
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.293.938.22safe2.43–6.162.18–5.674.61–11.82safer1.94–6.641.72–6.133.66–12.78
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4811.2225.70safe10.56–18.417.66–14.7918.22–33.19safer9.47–19.506.70–15.7516.17–35.24
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction9.867.1917.05safe6.92–12.804.51–9.8711.43–22.67safer6.09–13.633.77–10.619.86–24.24
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.763.937.69safe1.87–5.642.28–5.584.15–11.22safer1.33–6.181.79–6.083.12–12.26
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.854.6710.52safe3.64–8.072.67–6.676.31–14.74safer3.07–8.642.14–7.205.20–15.84
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction52.4148.22safe45.62–59.2041.43–55.00safer43.95–60.8739.76–56.68
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction405348753safe338–472282–415619–887safer319–490264–432584–922
Pass accuracy %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction61.4564.90safe57.42–65.4860.57–69.22safer56.13–66.7759.26–70.53
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5311.6823.21safe8.69–14.378.73–14.6217.42–28.99safer7.93–15.127.98–15.3715.92–30.49
Offsides
58%
19%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.431.523.95safe1.27–3.590.43–2.611.69–6.20safer0.97–3.890.14–2.901.11–6.79
Yellow cards
23%
21%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.262.053.31safe0.21–2.300.92–3.181.13–5.49safer0.00–2.570.63–3.470.57–6.04
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.15safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.49safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
35%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.532.905.44safe1.10–3.971.35–4.462.44–8.43safer0.71–4.360.92–4.881.63–9.24
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.29 0.11–2.55 | 1.19 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.28 | 2.52 0.70–4.34 0.22–4.82 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.29 2.43–6.16 1.94–6.64 | 3.93 2.18–5.67 1.72–6.13 | 8.22 4.61–11.82 3.66–12.78 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.48 10.56–18.41 9.47–19.50 | 11.22 7.66–14.79 6.70–15.75 | 25.70 18.22–33.19 16.17–35.24 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.86 6.92–12.80 6.09–13.63 | 7.19 4.51–9.87 3.77–10.61 | 17.05 11.43–22.67 9.86–24.24 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 3.76 1.87–5.64 1.33–6.18 | 3.93 2.28–5.58 1.79–6.08 | 7.69 4.15–11.22 3.12–12.26 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.85 3.64–8.07 3.07–8.64 | 4.67 2.67–6.67 2.14–7.20 | 10.52 6.31–14.74 5.20–15.84 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 52.41 45.62–59.20 43.95–60.87 | 48.22 41.43–55.00 39.76–56.68 | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 405 338–472 319–490 | 348 282–415 264–432 | 753 619–887 584–922 | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.45 57.42–65.48 56.13–66.77 | 64.90 60.57–69.22 59.26–70.53 | — | 31% 65% |
| Fouls | 11.53 8.69–14.37 7.93–15.12 | 11.68 8.73–14.62 7.98–15.37 | 23.21 17.42–28.99 15.92–30.49 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.43 1.27–3.59 0.97–3.89 | 1.52 0.43–2.61 0.14–2.90 | 3.95 1.69–6.20 1.11–6.79 | 58% 19% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.26 0.21–2.30 0.00–2.57 | 2.05 0.92–3.18 0.63–3.47 | 3.31 1.13–5.49 0.57–6.04 | 23% 21% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.53 1.10–3.97 0.71–4.36 | 2.90 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.88 | 5.44 2.44–8.43 1.63–9.24 | 35% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.