Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
28%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.310.992.30safe0.34–2.280.13–1.840.48–4.12safer0.09–2.530.00–2.070.00–4.60
Shots on target
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.383.437.81safe2.51–6.241.69–5.184.20–11.41safer2.02–6.731.22–5.643.25–12.37
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0210.2723.29safe9.10–16.956.71–13.8415.81–30.78safer8.01–18.045.75–14.7913.76–32.83
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction9.207.3416.53safe6.25–12.144.65–10.0210.91–22.16safer5.43–12.973.92–10.759.34–23.72
Blocked shots
58%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.982.926.90safe2.10–5.861.27–4.573.36–10.44safer1.55–6.400.78–5.072.33–11.47
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.454.309.75safe3.23–7.662.30–6.305.54–13.96safer2.66–8.231.77–6.844.43–15.07
Possession %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction53.8646.21safe47.07–60.6539.43–53.00safer45.40–62.3237.76–54.67
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction489398887safe422–557332–464754–1021safer404–575314–482718–1057
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction68.9269.58safe64.89–72.9565.25–73.90safer63.60–74.2463.95–75.21
Fouls
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3211.5921.91safe7.48–13.168.64–14.5316.12–27.69safer6.73–13.917.89–15.2814.62–29.19
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.673.41safe0.58–2.900.57–2.761.15–5.66safer0.28–3.200.29–3.050.56–6.25
Yellow cards
24%
22%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.993.24safe0.20–2.300.86–3.121.06–5.42safer0.00–2.570.57–3.410.50–5.98
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.390.00–0.75
GK saves
34%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.502.925.41safe1.06–3.931.36–4.472.42–8.41safer0.67–4.320.93–4.901.61–9.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 0.99 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 2.30 0.48–4.12 0.00–4.60 | 44% 28% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.51–6.24 2.02–6.73 | 3.43 1.69–5.18 1.22–5.64 | 7.81 4.20–11.41 3.25–12.37 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Total shots | 13.02 9.10–16.95 8.01–18.04 | 10.27 6.71–13.84 5.75–14.79 | 23.29 15.81–30.78 13.76–32.83 | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 9.20 6.25–12.14 5.43–12.97 | 7.34 4.65–10.02 3.92–10.75 | 16.53 10.91–22.16 9.34–23.72 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.10–5.86 1.55–6.40 | 2.92 1.27–4.57 0.78–5.07 | 6.90 3.36–10.44 2.33–11.47 | 58% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.23–7.66 2.66–8.23 | 4.30 2.30–6.30 1.77–6.84 | 9.75 5.54–13.96 4.43–15.07 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 53.86 47.07–60.65 45.40–62.32 | 46.21 39.43–53.00 37.76–54.67 | — | 65% 30% |
| Passes | 489 422–557 404–575 | 398 332–464 314–482 | 887 754–1021 718–1057 | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.92 64.89–72.95 63.60–74.24 | 69.58 65.25–73.90 63.95–75.21 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 10.32 7.48–13.16 6.73–13.91 | 11.59 8.64–14.53 7.89–15.28 | 21.91 16.12–27.69 14.62–29.19 | 35% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 1.67 0.57–2.76 0.29–3.05 | 3.41 1.15–5.66 0.56–6.25 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.25 0.20–2.30 0.00–2.57 | 1.99 0.86–3.12 0.57–3.41 | 3.24 1.06–5.42 0.50–5.98 | 24% 22% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.06–3.93 0.67–4.32 | 2.92 1.36–4.47 0.93–4.90 | 5.41 2.42–8.41 1.61–9.22 | 34% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.