Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.072.56safe0.52–2.460.22–1.930.74–4.38safer0.27–2.710.00–2.150.26–4.86
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.943.688.62safe3.08–6.801.94–5.425.02–12.23safer2.59–7.291.47–5.894.06–13.18
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7910.9826.77safe11.87–19.727.41–14.5419.28–34.25safer10.78–20.816.45–15.5017.23–36.31
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.427.8817.30safe6.48–12.375.20–10.5611.68–22.92safer5.65–13.204.46–11.2910.11–24.49
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.352.566.91safe2.47–6.230.91–4.213.37–10.45safer1.92–6.770.42–4.712.34–11.48
Corners
66%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.124.3110.42safe3.90–8.332.31–6.316.21–14.64safer3.33–8.901.77–6.845.10–15.74
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction58.6241.63safe51.83–65.4134.85–48.42safer50.16–67.0833.17–50.09
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction512339851safe444–579273–406717–985safer426–597255–423681–1020
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction73.8368.19safe69.80–77.8663.87–72.52safer68.51–79.1562.56–73.83
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8413.4824.32safe8.00–13.6710.54–16.4318.54–30.10safer7.24–14.439.79–17.1817.03–31.61
Offsides
23%
17%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.984.90safe0.75–3.081.89–4.082.64–7.15safer0.45–3.381.60–4.362.05–7.74
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.294.05safe0.70–2.801.16–3.421.87–6.22safer0.44–3.070.87–3.711.31–6.78
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.383.265.65safe0.95–3.821.71–4.822.66–8.64safer0.56–4.211.28–5.241.84–9.45
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.52–2.46 0.27–2.71 | 1.07 0.22–1.93 0.00–2.15 | 2.56 0.74–4.38 0.26–4.86 | 47% 26% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.94 3.08–6.80 2.59–7.29 | 3.68 1.94–5.42 1.47–5.89 | 8.62 5.02–12.23 4.06–13.18 | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 15.79 11.87–19.72 10.78–20.81 | 10.98 7.41–14.54 6.45–15.50 | 26.77 19.28–34.25 17.23–36.31 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.42 6.48–12.37 5.65–13.20 | 7.88 5.20–10.56 4.46–11.29 | 17.30 11.68–22.92 10.11–24.49 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.35 2.47–6.23 1.92–6.77 | 2.56 0.91–4.21 0.42–4.71 | 6.91 3.37–10.45 2.34–11.48 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.12 3.90–8.33 3.33–8.90 | 4.31 2.31–6.31 1.77–6.84 | 10.42 6.21–14.64 5.10–15.74 | 66% 24% |
| Possession % | 58.62 51.83–65.41 50.16–67.08 | 41.63 34.85–48.42 33.17–50.09 | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 512 444–579 426–597 | 339 273–406 255–423 | 851 717–985 681–1020 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.83 69.80–77.86 68.51–79.15 | 68.19 63.87–72.52 62.56–73.83 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 10.84 8.00–13.67 7.24–14.43 | 13.48 10.54–16.43 9.79–17.18 | 24.32 18.54–30.10 17.03–31.61 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.75–3.08 0.45–3.38 | 2.98 1.89–4.08 1.60–4.36 | 4.90 2.64–7.15 2.05–7.74 | 23% 17% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 2.29 1.16–3.42 0.87–3.71 | 4.05 1.87–6.22 1.31–6.78 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.38 0.95–3.82 0.56–4.21 | 3.26 1.71–4.82 1.28–5.24 | 5.65 2.66–8.64 1.84–9.45 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.