Championship·Regular Season - 41·
Championship·Regular Season - 41·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
25%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.582.91safe0.36–2.300.73–2.431.08–4.73safer0.11–2.550.50–2.660.60–5.21
Shots on target
36%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.054.608.65safe2.18–5.912.86–6.345.04–12.25safer1.70–6.402.39–6.814.08–13.21
Total shots
30%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9314.0425.97safe8.00–15.8510.48–17.6018.48–33.45safer6.91–16.949.52–18.5616.43–35.50
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction8.179.6517.82safe5.23–11.116.97–12.3312.19–23.44safer4.40–11.946.23–13.0710.63–25.01
Blocked shots
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.344.137.47safe1.46–5.222.47–5.783.93–11.00safer0.92–5.771.98–6.272.90–12.04
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.085.1210.19safe2.86–7.293.12–7.125.98–14.41safer2.29–7.862.58–7.654.87–15.52
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction45.9954.25safe39.20–52.7847.47–61.04safer37.53–54.4545.79–62.71
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction383450833safe316–450384–517699–967safer297–468366–534664–1002
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction67.8473.25safe63.81–71.8768.93–77.58safer62.52–73.1667.62–78.89
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3011.5323.83safe9.46–15.148.58–14.4718.05–29.61safer8.70–15.897.84–15.2216.54–31.11
Offsides
44%
19%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.352.154.50safe1.19–3.511.06–3.252.25–6.75safer0.89–3.810.77–3.531.66–7.34
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.973.83safe0.81–2.910.84–3.101.65–6.00safer0.54–3.170.55–3.391.09–6.56
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.655.65safe1.57–4.441.09–4.212.66–8.65safer1.18–4.830.67–4.631.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.30 0.11–2.55 | 1.58 0.73–2.43 0.50–2.66 | 2.91 1.08–4.73 0.60–5.21 | 32% 25% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.18–5.91 1.70–6.40 | 4.60 2.86–6.34 2.39–6.81 | 8.65 5.04–12.25 4.08–13.21 | 36% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 11.93 8.00–15.85 6.91–16.94 | 14.04 10.48–17.60 9.52–18.56 | 25.97 18.48–33.45 16.43–35.50 | 30% 62% |
| Shots in box | 8.17 5.23–11.11 4.40–11.94 | 9.65 6.97–12.33 6.23–13.07 | 17.82 12.19–23.44 10.63–25.01 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 3.34 1.46–5.22 0.92–5.77 | 4.13 2.47–5.78 1.98–6.27 | 7.47 3.93–11.00 2.90–12.04 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Corners | 5.08 2.86–7.29 2.29–7.86 | 5.12 3.12–7.12 2.58–7.65 | 10.19 5.98–14.41 4.87–15.52 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 45.99 39.20–52.78 37.53–54.45 | 54.25 47.47–61.04 45.79–62.71 | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 383 316–450 297–468 | 450 384–517 366–534 | 833 699–967 664–1002 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.84 63.81–71.87 62.52–73.16 | 73.25 68.93–77.58 67.62–78.89 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 12.30 9.46–15.14 8.70–15.89 | 11.53 8.58–14.47 7.84–15.22 | 23.83 18.05–29.61 16.54–31.11 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.35 1.19–3.51 0.89–3.81 | 2.15 1.06–3.25 0.77–3.53 | 4.50 2.25–6.75 1.66–7.34 | 44% 19% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.91 0.54–3.17 | 1.97 0.84–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 3.83 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.56 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.57–4.44 1.18–4.83 | 2.65 1.09–4.21 0.67–4.63 | 5.65 2.66–8.65 1.85–9.46 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.