Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.681.533.22safe0.71–2.650.68–2.391.39–5.04safer0.46–2.900.45–2.620.91–5.52
Shots on target
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.244.449.68safe3.38–7.102.70–6.186.08–13.29safer2.89–7.592.23–6.655.12–14.24
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction16.4511.5628.01safe12.53–20.388.00–15.1320.53–35.50safer11.43–21.477.04–16.0918.48–37.55
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction10.447.8218.26safe7.49–13.385.14–10.5012.63–23.88safer6.66–14.214.40–11.2411.07–25.45
Blocked shots
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.883.077.95safe3.00–6.771.41–4.724.42–11.49safer2.46–7.310.92–5.213.38–12.52
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.714.229.94safe3.50–7.922.22–6.225.72–14.15safer2.92–8.501.69–6.764.62–15.26
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction50.7948.97safe44.00–57.5942.18–55.75safer42.33–59.2540.51–57.43
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction438415853safe371–505348–481719–987safer353–524331–499684–1022
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction70.7873.43safe66.75–74.8169.11–77.76safer65.46–76.1067.80–79.07
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8612.3924.25safe9.02–14.699.45–15.3418.47–30.03safer8.26–15.458.70–16.0816.96–31.54
Offsides
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.283.99safe0.55–2.871.19–3.381.74–6.25safer0.25–3.170.90–3.671.15–6.84
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.073.63safe0.50–2.600.95–3.201.45–5.81safer0.24–2.870.65–3.500.89–6.36
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.135.74safe1.18–4.051.58–4.692.75–8.74safer0.79–4.431.15–5.111.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.71–2.65 0.46–2.90 | 1.53 0.68–2.39 0.45–2.62 | 3.22 1.39–5.04 0.91–5.52 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.24 3.38–7.10 2.89–7.59 | 4.44 2.70–6.18 2.23–6.65 | 9.68 6.08–13.29 5.12–14.24 | 54% 34% |
| Total shots | 16.45 12.53–20.38 11.43–21.47 | 11.56 8.00–15.13 7.04–16.09 | 28.01 20.53–35.50 18.48–37.55 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 10.44 7.49–13.38 6.66–14.21 | 7.82 5.14–10.50 4.40–11.24 | 18.26 12.63–23.88 11.07–25.45 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.88 3.00–6.77 2.46–7.31 | 3.07 1.41–4.72 0.92–5.21 | 7.95 4.42–11.49 3.38–12.52 | 68% 20% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.50–7.92 2.92–8.50 | 4.22 2.22–6.22 1.69–6.76 | 9.94 5.72–14.15 4.62–15.26 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 50.79 44.00–57.59 42.33–59.25 | 48.97 42.18–55.75 40.51–57.43 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 438 371–505 353–524 | 415 348–481 331–499 | 853 719–987 684–1022 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.78 66.75–74.81 65.46–76.10 | 73.43 69.11–77.76 67.80–79.07 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 11.86 9.02–14.69 8.26–15.45 | 12.39 9.45–15.34 8.70–16.08 | 24.25 18.47–30.03 16.96–31.54 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 2.28 1.19–3.38 0.90–3.67 | 3.99 1.74–6.25 1.15–6.84 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.24–2.87 | 2.07 0.95–3.20 0.65–3.50 | 3.63 1.45–5.81 0.89–6.36 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.43 | 3.13 1.58–4.69 1.15–5.11 | 5.74 2.75–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.