Liga I·Regular Season - 9·
Liga I·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Gabriel Mihuleac · Romania
Goals
27%
27%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.402.39safe0.03–1.950.54–2.260.56–4.21safer0.00–2.210.29–2.500.06–4.71actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
28%
13%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.604.768.36safe1.75–5.463.05–6.464.80–11.92safer1.25–5.962.58–6.933.83–12.89actual4.006.0010.00
Total shots
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7012.9523.65safe7.00–14.409.57–16.3316.57–30.73safer5.97–15.438.64–17.2614.61–32.70actual11.0012.0023.00
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction6.939.6316.56safe4.42–9.457.33–11.9311.75–21.38safer3.55–10.316.53–12.7310.08–23.04actual5.006.0011.00
Blocked shots
32%
15%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.596.49safe1.32–4.482.18–5.013.49–9.49safer0.78–5.021.69–5.492.47–10.51actual1.000.001.00
Corners
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.545.5810.12safe2.33–6.743.61–7.565.94–14.30safer1.74–7.343.07–8.104.81–15.44actual7.006.0013.00
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction43.9754.50safe37.65–50.2948.18–60.82safer36.06–51.8846.59–62.42actual46.0054.00
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction342470812safe277–408405–535683–942safer259–425388–552647–978actual4635531016
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction64.8076.25safe60.59–69.0271.74–80.75safer59.29–70.3270.41–82.08
Fouls
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction8.4810.5118.99safe5.62–11.347.57–13.4613.19–24.79safer4.74–12.226.65–14.3711.39–26.60actual13.003.0016.00
Offsides
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.004.30safe1.10–3.510.84–3.161.93–6.68safer0.75–3.860.50–3.491.26–7.35actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.244.32safe1.03–3.141.12–3.362.14–6.50safer0.75–3.410.83–3.651.58–7.06actual3.000.003.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.572.415.98safe2.15–4.980.86–3.963.01–8.95safer1.77–5.370.42–4.402.19–9.77actual5.004.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.03–1.95 0.00–2.21 | 0.00 | 1.40 0.54–2.26 0.29–2.50 | 1.00 | 2.39 0.56–4.21 0.06–4.71 | 1.00 | 27% 27% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.60 1.75–5.46 1.25–5.96 | 4.00 | 4.76 3.05–6.46 2.58–6.93 | 6.00 | 8.36 4.80–11.92 3.83–12.89 | 10.00 | 28% 13% 59% |
| Total shots | 10.70 7.00–14.40 5.97–15.43 | 11.00 | 12.95 9.57–16.33 8.64–17.26 | 12.00 | 23.65 16.57–30.73 14.61–32.70 | 23.00 | 29% 64% |
| Shots in box | 6.93 4.42–9.45 3.55–10.31 | 5.00 | 9.63 7.33–11.93 6.53–12.73 | 6.00 | 16.56 11.75–21.38 10.08–23.04 | 11.00 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 2.90 1.32–4.48 0.78–5.02 | 1.00 | 3.59 2.18–5.01 1.69–5.49 | 0.00 | 6.49 3.49–9.49 2.47–10.51 | 1.00 | 32% 15% 53% |
| Corners | 4.54 2.33–6.74 1.74–7.34 | 7.00 | 5.58 3.61–7.56 3.07–8.10 | 6.00 | 10.12 5.94–14.30 4.81–15.44 | 13.00 | 31% 57% |
| Possession % | 43.97 37.65–50.29 36.06–51.88 | 46.00 | 54.50 48.18–60.82 46.59–62.42 | 54.00 | — | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 342 277–408 259–425 | 463 | 470 405–535 388–552 | 553 | 812 683–942 647–978 | 1016 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.80 60.59–69.02 59.29–70.32 | — | 76.25 71.74–80.75 70.41–82.08 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 8.48 5.62–11.34 4.74–12.22 | 13.00 | 10.51 7.57–13.46 6.65–14.37 | 3.00 | 18.99 13.19–24.79 11.39–26.60 | 16.00 | 28% 64% |
| Offsides | 2.30 1.10–3.51 0.75–3.86 | 3.00 | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.50–3.49 | 2.00 | 4.30 1.93–6.68 1.26–7.35 | 5.00 | 46% 20% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.14 0.75–3.41 | 3.00 | 2.24 1.12–3.36 0.83–3.65 | 0.00 | 4.32 2.14–6.50 1.58–7.06 | 3.00 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.57 2.15–4.98 1.77–5.37 | 5.00 | 2.41 0.86–3.96 0.42–4.40 | 4.00 | 5.98 3.01–8.95 2.19–9.77 | 9.00 | 60% 15% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.