Liga I·Regular Season - 9·
Liga I·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: George Catalin Roman · Romania
Goals
26%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.712.87safe0.20–2.130.85–2.571.05–4.70safer0.00–2.390.60–2.820.54–5.20actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.715.258.95safe1.85–5.563.54–6.955.39–12.52safer1.35–6.063.07–7.424.42–13.48actual3.006.009.00
Total shots
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6314.8626.49safe7.93–15.3411.48–18.2319.41–33.57safer6.90–16.3710.55–19.1717.45–35.53actual9.0018.0027.00
Shots in box
29%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction7.248.9016.14safe4.73–9.766.60–11.2011.33–20.96safer3.86–10.625.80–12.009.67–22.62actual4.0016.0020.00
Blocked shots
35%
15%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.676.81safe1.56–4.732.25–5.083.81–9.81safer1.03–5.261.77–5.572.79–10.83actual1.004.005.00
Corners
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.425.6510.06safe2.21–6.623.67–7.635.88–14.25safer1.62–7.223.13–8.164.75–15.38actual2.004.006.00
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction40.2860.60safe33.97–46.6054.28–66.92safer32.37–48.2052.69–68.52actual40.0060.00
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction327509835safe261–392444–573705–965safer244–410427–591670–1000actual360542902
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction74.4386.07safe70.21–78.6481.56–90.58safer68.91–79.9480.23–91.91
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1512.4124.56safe9.29–15.019.46–15.3518.75–30.36safer8.41–15.898.54–16.2716.95–32.16actual16.0013.0029.00
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.503.50safe0.79–3.210.33–2.661.13–5.87safer0.45–3.560.00–2.990.45–6.55actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
45%
20%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.054.35safe1.24–3.350.93–3.172.17–6.52safer0.97–3.630.64–3.461.61–7.08actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
13%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.100.26safe0.00–0.310.00–0.290.00–0.60safer0.00–0.460.00–0.440.00–0.90actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.522.596.11safe2.11–4.931.03–4.143.14–9.07safer1.72–5.320.60–4.572.32–9.89actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.20–2.13 0.00–2.39 | 1.00 | 1.71 0.85–2.57 0.60–2.82 | 3.00 | 2.87 1.05–4.70 0.54–5.20 | 4.00 | 26% 24% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.71 1.85–5.56 1.35–6.06 | 3.00 | 5.25 3.54–6.95 3.07–7.42 | 6.00 | 8.95 5.39–12.52 4.42–13.48 | 9.00 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 11.63 7.93–15.34 6.90–16.37 | 9.00 | 14.86 11.48–18.23 10.55–19.17 | 18.00 | 26.49 19.41–33.57 17.45–35.53 | 27.00 | 23% 70% |
| Shots in box | 7.24 4.73–9.76 3.86–10.62 | 4.00 | 8.90 6.60–11.20 5.80–12.00 | 16.00 | 16.14 11.33–20.96 9.67–22.62 | 20.00 | 29% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 1.56–4.73 1.03–5.26 | 1.00 | 3.67 2.25–5.08 1.77–5.57 | 4.00 | 6.81 3.81–9.81 2.79–10.83 | 5.00 | 35% 15% 50% |
| Corners | 4.42 2.21–6.62 1.62–7.22 | 2.00 | 5.65 3.67–7.63 3.13–8.16 | 4.00 | 10.06 5.88–14.25 4.75–15.38 | 6.00 | 29% 59% |
| Possession % | 40.28 33.97–46.60 32.37–48.20 | 40.00 | 60.60 54.28–66.92 52.69–68.52 | 60.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Passes | 327 261–392 244–410 | 360 | 509 444–573 427–591 | 542 | 835 705–965 670–1000 | 902 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.43 70.21–78.64 68.91–79.94 | — | 86.07 81.56–90.58 80.23–91.91 | — | — | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 12.15 9.29–15.01 8.41–15.89 | 16.00 | 12.41 9.46–15.35 8.54–16.27 | 13.00 | 24.56 18.75–30.36 16.95–32.16 | 29.00 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.00 0.79–3.21 0.45–3.56 | 1.00 | 1.50 0.33–2.66 0.00–2.99 | 1.00 | 3.50 1.13–5.87 0.45–6.55 | 2.00 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.24–3.35 0.97–3.63 | 1.00 | 2.05 0.93–3.17 0.64–3.46 | 1.00 | 4.35 2.17–6.52 1.61–7.08 | 2.00 | 45% 20% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.90 | 0.00 | 13% 79% |
| GK saves | 3.52 2.11–4.93 1.72–5.32 | 3.00 | 2.59 1.03–4.14 0.60–4.57 | 2.00 | 6.11 3.14–9.07 2.32–9.89 | 5.00 | 57% 15% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.