Liga I·Regular Season - 9·
Liga I·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Horia Gabriel Mladinovici · Romania
Goals
49%
25%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.042.60safe0.59–2.520.18–1.900.78–4.42safer0.33–2.780.00–2.150.27–4.93actual4.002.006.00
Shots on target
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.243.458.69safe3.39–7.101.74–5.155.13–12.25safer2.89–7.601.27–5.624.16–13.22actual10.004.0014.00
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5911.3025.89safe10.89–18.297.92–14.6818.81–32.97safer9.86–19.326.99–15.6116.85–34.93actual14.0017.0031.00
Shots in box
62%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction8.506.7715.27safe5.98–11.014.47–9.0710.45–20.08safer5.12–11.883.67–9.878.79–21.75actual12.0014.0026.00
Blocked shots
51%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.653.066.71safe2.07–5.231.64–4.473.71–9.71safer1.53–5.771.16–4.962.69–10.73actual3.003.006.00
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.624.199.81safe3.42–7.832.21–6.175.63–13.99safer2.82–8.421.67–6.704.49–15.13actual1.005.006.00
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction55.8544.00safe49.53–62.1737.69–50.32safer47.93–63.7636.09–51.92actual49.0051.00
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction492359852safe427–558295–424722–982safer409–575277–441687–1017actual436424860
Pass accuracy %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction83.2980.17safe79.07–87.5075.66–84.67safer77.77–88.8174.33–86.00
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4513.3523.81safe7.60–13.3110.41–16.3018.00–29.61safer6.71–14.209.49–17.2216.20–31.41actual6.006.0012.00
Offsides
48%
26%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.042.52safe0.27–2.690.00–2.200.15–4.89safer0.00–3.040.00–2.530.00–5.57actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
29%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.454.30safe0.80–2.911.33–3.572.12–6.48safer0.53–3.181.04–3.861.56–7.04actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.450.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
15%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.213.535.74safe0.80–3.631.97–5.082.77–8.71safer0.41–4.011.54–5.511.95–9.53actual2.006.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.52 0.33–2.78 | 4.00 | 1.04 0.18–1.90 0.00–2.15 | 2.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.27–4.93 | 6.00 | 49% 25% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.24 3.39–7.10 2.89–7.60 | 10.00 | 3.45 1.74–5.15 1.27–5.62 | 4.00 | 8.69 5.13–12.25 4.16–13.22 | 14.00 | 67% 22% |
| Total shots | 14.59 10.89–18.29 9.86–19.32 | 14.00 | 11.30 7.92–14.68 6.99–15.61 | 17.00 | 25.89 18.81–32.97 16.85–34.93 | 31.00 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 8.50 5.98–11.01 5.12–11.88 | 12.00 | 6.77 4.47–9.07 3.67–9.87 | 14.00 | 15.27 10.45–20.08 8.79–21.75 | 26.00 | 62% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 2.07–5.23 1.53–5.77 | 3.00 | 3.06 1.64–4.47 1.16–4.96 | 3.00 | 6.71 3.71–9.71 2.69–10.73 | 6.00 | 51% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.62 3.42–7.83 2.82–8.42 | 1.00 | 4.19 2.21–6.17 1.67–6.70 | 5.00 | 9.81 5.63–13.99 4.49–15.13 | 6.00 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 55.85 49.53–62.17 47.93–63.76 | 49.00 | 44.00 37.69–50.32 36.09–51.92 | 51.00 | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 492 427–558 409–575 | 436 | 359 295–424 277–441 | 424 | 852 722–982 687–1017 | 860 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.29 79.07–87.50 77.77–88.81 | — | 80.17 75.66–84.67 74.33–86.00 | — | — | — | 63% 33% |
| Fouls | 10.45 7.60–13.31 6.71–14.20 | 6.00 | 13.35 10.41–16.30 9.49–17.22 | 6.00 | 23.81 18.00–29.61 16.20–31.41 | 12.00 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.27–2.69 0.00–3.04 | 3.00 | 1.04 0.00–2.20 0.00–2.53 | 2.00 | 2.52 0.15–4.89 0.00–5.57 | 5.00 | 48% 26% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.91 0.53–3.18 | 0.00 | 2.45 1.33–3.57 1.04–3.86 | 2.00 | 4.30 2.12–6.48 1.56–7.04 | 2.00 | 29% 19% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.21 0.80–3.63 0.41–4.01 | 2.00 | 3.53 1.97–5.08 1.54–5.51 | 6.00 | 5.74 2.77–8.71 1.95–9.53 | 8.00 | 22% 15% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+