Liga I·Regular Season - 9·
Liga I·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Florin Andrei · Romania
Goals
33%
28%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.101.212.31safe0.14–2.060.35–2.070.49–4.14safer0.00–2.330.11–2.320.00–4.64actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
37%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.664.077.73safe1.81–5.522.36–5.774.17–11.29safer1.31–6.021.89–6.243.20–12.26actual1.003.004.00
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4312.5024.93safe8.73–16.149.12–15.8817.85–32.02safer7.70–17.178.19–16.8115.89–33.98actual8.005.0013.00
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction7.898.0415.93safe5.38–10.415.74–10.3411.11–20.75safer4.51–11.274.94–11.149.45–22.41actual7.003.0010.00
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.733.216.95safe2.15–5.321.80–4.633.95–9.95safer1.62–5.851.31–5.112.93–10.97actual1.000.001.00
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.615.069.67safe2.41–6.823.08–7.045.49–13.85safer1.81–7.412.54–7.574.35–14.99actual2.002.004.00
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.1457.52safe35.82–48.4651.21–63.84safer34.23–50.0649.61–65.44actual34.0066.00
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction319461780safe253–384397–526650–910safer236–401379–544615–945actual294595889
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction65.5677.02safe61.34–69.7872.51–81.53safer60.04–71.0871.18–82.86
Fouls
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction13.859.9223.78safe11.00–16.716.98–12.8717.97–29.58safer10.11–17.606.06–13.7816.17–31.38actual10.007.0017.00
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.833.59safe0.55–2.970.66–2.991.21–5.96safer0.21–3.310.33–3.320.54–6.64actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
43%
19%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.502.404.90safe1.45–3.561.28–3.522.72–7.08safer1.17–3.830.99–3.812.16–7.64actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
45%
18%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.612.395.00safe1.20–4.030.83–3.942.03–7.97safer0.81–4.420.40–4.371.21–8.79actual2.000.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 0.14–2.06 0.00–2.33 | 1.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.11–2.32 | 1.00 | 2.31 0.49–4.14 0.00–4.64 | 2.00 | 33% 28% 39% |
| Shots on target | 3.66 1.81–5.52 1.31–6.02 | 1.00 | 4.07 2.36–5.77 1.89–6.24 | 3.00 | 7.73 4.17–11.29 3.20–12.26 | 4.00 | 37% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.43 8.73–16.14 7.70–17.17 | 8.00 | 12.50 9.12–15.88 8.19–16.81 | 5.00 | 24.93 17.85–32.02 15.89–33.98 | 13.00 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 7.89 5.38–10.41 4.51–11.27 | 7.00 | 8.04 5.74–10.34 4.94–11.14 | 3.00 | 15.93 11.11–20.75 9.45–22.41 | 10.00 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 2.15–5.32 1.62–5.85 | 1.00 | 3.21 1.80–4.63 1.31–5.11 | 0.00 | 6.95 3.95–9.95 2.93–10.97 | 1.00 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 4.61 2.41–6.82 1.81–7.41 | 2.00 | 5.06 3.08–7.04 2.54–7.57 | 2.00 | 9.67 5.49–13.85 4.35–14.99 | 4.00 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 42.14 35.82–48.46 34.23–50.06 | 34.00 | 57.52 51.21–63.84 49.61–65.44 | 66.00 | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 319 253–384 236–401 | 294 | 461 397–526 379–544 | 595 | 780 650–910 615–945 | 889 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.56 61.34–69.78 60.04–71.08 | — | 77.02 72.51–81.53 71.18–82.86 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 13.85 11.00–16.71 10.11–17.60 | 10.00 | 9.92 6.98–12.87 6.06–13.78 | 7.00 | 23.78 17.97–29.58 16.17–31.38 | 17.00 | 76% 18% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.55–2.97 0.21–3.31 | 3.00 | 1.83 0.66–2.99 0.33–3.32 | 0.00 | 3.59 1.21–5.96 0.54–6.64 | 3.00 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.50 1.45–3.56 1.17–3.83 | 1.00 | 2.40 1.28–3.52 0.99–3.81 | 2.00 | 4.90 2.72–7.08 2.16–7.64 | 3.00 | 43% 19% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 1.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 1.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.20–4.03 0.81–4.42 | 2.00 | 2.39 0.83–3.94 0.40–4.37 | 0.00 | 5.00 2.03–7.97 1.21–8.79 | 2.00 | 45% 18% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.