Liga I·Regular Season - 9·
Liga I·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Andrei Moroita · Romania
Goals
61%
23%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction1.810.812.61safe0.84–2.770.00–1.670.79–4.44safer0.58–3.030.00–1.910.29–4.94actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.793.489.27safe3.93–7.651.77–5.195.71–12.83safer3.44–8.151.30–5.664.74–13.80actual7.006.0013.00
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction17.1811.2228.40safe13.48–20.897.84–14.6021.32–35.48safer12.45–21.926.91–15.5319.36–37.44actual24.0012.0036.00
Shots in box
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction10.496.8117.30safe7.97–13.004.51–9.1112.48–22.12safer7.11–13.873.71–9.9110.82–23.78actual16.006.0022.00
Blocked shots
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.982.967.95safe3.40–6.571.55–4.384.95–10.94safer2.86–7.101.06–4.873.93–11.97actual6.003.009.00
Corners
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.464.0710.53safe4.26–8.672.09–6.056.34–14.71safer3.66–9.261.55–6.585.21–15.84actual5.002.007.00
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction56.0145.14safe49.69–62.3238.82–51.46safer48.09–63.9237.22–53.06actual60.0040.00
Passes
83%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction487373859safe421–552308–437729–989safer404–569290–455694–1024actual497347844
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction78.2669.57safe74.04–82.4765.07–74.08safer72.74–83.7763.74–75.41
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5410.3121.86safe8.69–14.407.37–13.2616.06–27.66safer7.80–15.296.45–14.1814.25–29.46actual13.0012.0025.00
Offsides
41%
28%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.082.37safe0.08–2.490.00–2.240.00–4.74safer0.00–2.840.00–2.580.00–5.42actual5.001.006.00
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.093.67safe0.52–2.640.97–3.211.49–5.84safer0.25–2.910.68–3.500.93–6.40actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.486.10safe1.21–4.041.92–5.033.13–9.07safer0.82–4.431.49–5.462.31–9.89actual5.006.0011.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 0.84–2.77 0.58–3.03 | 2.00 | 0.81 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.91 | 1.00 | 2.61 0.79–4.44 0.29–4.94 | 3.00 | 61% 23% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.79 3.93–7.65 3.44–8.15 | 7.00 | 3.48 1.77–5.19 1.30–5.66 | 6.00 | 9.27 5.71–12.83 4.74–13.80 | 13.00 | 72% 17% |
| Total shots | 17.18 13.48–20.89 12.45–21.92 | 24.00 | 11.22 7.84–14.60 6.91–15.53 | 12.00 | 28.40 21.32–35.48 19.36–37.44 | 36.00 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 10.49 7.97–13.00 7.11–13.87 | 16.00 | 6.81 4.51–9.11 3.71–9.91 | 6.00 | 17.30 12.48–22.12 10.82–23.78 | 22.00 | 78% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.98 3.40–6.57 2.86–7.10 | 6.00 | 2.96 1.55–4.38 1.06–4.87 | 3.00 | 7.95 4.95–10.94 3.93–11.97 | 9.00 | 70% 18% |
| Corners | 6.46 4.26–8.67 3.66–9.26 | 5.00 | 4.07 2.09–6.05 1.55–6.58 | 2.00 | 10.53 6.34–14.71 5.21–15.84 | 7.00 | 72% 18% |
| Possession % | 56.01 49.69–62.32 48.09–63.92 | 60.00 | 45.14 38.82–51.46 37.22–53.06 | 40.00 | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 487 421–552 404–569 | 497 | 373 308–437 290–455 | 347 | 859 729–989 694–1024 | 844 | 83% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.26 74.04–82.47 72.74–83.77 | — | 69.57 65.07–74.08 63.74–75.41 | — | — | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.69–14.40 7.80–15.29 | 13.00 | 10.31 7.37–13.26 6.45–14.18 | 12.00 | 21.86 16.06–27.66 14.25–29.46 | 25.00 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.28 0.08–2.49 0.00–2.84 | 5.00 | 1.08 0.00–2.24 0.00–2.58 | 1.00 | 2.37 0.00–4.74 0.00–5.42 | 6.00 | 41% 28% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.52–2.64 0.25–2.91 | 2.00 | 2.09 0.97–3.21 0.68–3.50 | 3.00 | 3.67 1.49–5.84 0.93–6.40 | 5.00 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.21–4.04 0.82–4.43 | 5.00 | 3.48 1.92–5.03 1.49–5.46 | 6.00 | 6.10 3.13–9.07 2.31–9.89 | 11.00 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.