Liga I·Regular Season - 9·
Liga I·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Iulian Calin · Romania
Goals
59%
22%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.880.962.84safe0.91–2.840.10–1.821.01–4.66safer0.65–3.100.00–2.070.51–5.17actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.253.389.63safe4.39–8.101.67–5.096.06–13.19safer3.89–8.601.20–5.555.10–14.16actual10.004.0014.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction18.6210.4129.03safe14.92–22.327.03–13.7921.95–36.11safer13.88–23.356.10–14.7219.99–38.07actual28.0011.0039.00
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction11.366.6117.97safe8.84–13.884.31–8.9213.16–22.79safer7.98–14.743.52–9.7111.50–24.45actual21.004.0025.00
Blocked shots
77%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction5.172.607.77safe3.58–6.751.18–4.014.77–10.77safer3.05–7.290.70–4.503.75–11.79actual6.002.008.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.844.0010.85safe4.64–9.052.03–5.986.66–15.03safer4.04–9.641.49–6.525.53–16.16actual10.004.0014.00
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction59.5840.22safe53.26–65.9033.90–46.53safer51.67–67.5032.30–48.13actual57.0043.00
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction474326800safe409–539262–391670–930safer391–557244–408635–965actual457336793
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction80.3371.59safe76.11–84.5467.09–76.10safer74.81–85.8465.76–77.43
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0911.3622.45safe8.24–13.958.41–14.3016.65–28.25safer7.35–14.847.49–15.2214.85–30.06actual7.007.0014.00
Offsides
39%
28%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.102.32safe0.00–2.420.00–2.270.00–4.69safer0.00–2.770.00–2.600.00–5.36actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
28%
19%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.544.40safe0.81–2.921.42–3.662.23–6.58safer0.54–3.191.13–3.951.66–7.14actual3.001.004.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
19%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.374.116.48safe0.95–3.782.56–5.663.51–9.45safer0.56–4.172.12–6.102.69–10.27actual2.008.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.88 0.91–2.84 0.65–3.10 | 2.00 | 0.96 0.10–1.82 0.00–2.07 | 2.00 | 2.84 1.01–4.66 0.51–5.17 | 4.00 | 59% 22% 19% |
| Shots on target | 6.25 4.39–8.10 3.89–8.60 | 10.00 | 3.38 1.67–5.09 1.20–5.55 | 4.00 | 9.63 6.06–13.19 5.10–14.16 | 14.00 | 78% 13% |
| Total shots | 18.62 14.92–22.32 13.88–23.35 | 28.00 | 10.41 7.03–13.79 6.10–14.72 | 11.00 | 29.03 21.95–36.11 19.99–38.07 | 39.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 11.36 8.84–13.88 7.98–14.74 | 21.00 | 6.61 4.31–8.92 3.52–9.71 | 4.00 | 17.97 13.16–22.79 11.50–24.45 | 25.00 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 5.17 3.58–6.75 3.05–7.29 | 6.00 | 2.60 1.18–4.01 0.70–4.50 | 2.00 | 7.77 4.77–10.77 3.75–11.79 | 8.00 | 77% 13% |
| Corners | 6.84 4.64–9.05 4.04–9.64 | 10.00 | 4.00 2.03–5.98 1.49–6.52 | 4.00 | 10.85 6.66–15.03 5.53–16.16 | 14.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 59.58 53.26–65.90 51.67–67.50 | 57.00 | 40.22 33.90–46.53 32.30–48.13 | 43.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Passes | 474 409–539 391–557 | 457 | 326 262–391 244–408 | 336 | 800 670–930 635–965 | 793 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.33 76.11–84.54 74.81–85.84 | — | 71.59 67.09–76.10 65.76–77.43 | — | — | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 11.09 8.24–13.95 7.35–14.84 | 7.00 | 11.36 8.41–14.30 7.49–15.22 | 7.00 | 22.45 16.65–28.25 14.85–30.06 | 14.00 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.21 0.00–2.42 0.00–2.77 | 0.00 | 1.10 0.00–2.27 0.00–2.60 | 1.00 | 2.32 0.00–4.69 0.00–5.36 | 1.00 | 39% 28% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.92 0.54–3.19 | 3.00 | 2.54 1.42–3.66 1.13–3.95 | 1.00 | 4.40 2.23–6.58 1.66–7.14 | 4.00 | 28% 19% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.95–3.78 0.56–4.17 | 2.00 | 4.11 2.56–5.66 2.12–6.10 | 8.00 | 6.48 3.51–9.45 2.69–10.27 | 10.00 | 19% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.