Liga I·Regular Season - 9·
Liga I·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Marian Barbu · Romania
Goals
46%
28%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.310.912.22safe0.35–2.270.05–1.770.40–4.04safer0.09–2.530.00–2.010.00–4.55actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.703.127.83safe2.85–6.561.41–4.834.26–11.39safer2.35–7.060.95–5.303.29–12.36actual7.006.0013.00
Total shots
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction14.259.7524.00safe10.55–17.956.38–13.1316.92–31.09safer9.52–18.985.45–14.0614.96–33.05actual14.0016.0030.00
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction8.066.1214.17safe5.54–10.573.81–8.429.36–18.99safer4.68–11.443.02–9.217.69–20.65actual10.009.0019.00
Blocked shots
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.322.736.04safe1.73–4.901.31–4.143.04–9.04safer1.20–5.430.82–4.632.02–10.06actual1.002.003.00
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.684.169.84safe3.47–7.882.18–6.145.66–14.02safer2.88–8.481.65–6.684.53–15.16actual1.006.007.00
Possession %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction53.5345.44safe47.21–59.8439.12–51.76safer45.61–61.4437.52–53.36actual56.0044.00
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction433339773safe368–499275–404643–903safer350–516257–422607–938actual529410939
Pass accuracy %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction79.2772.01safe75.06–83.4967.50–76.51safer73.76–84.7966.17–77.84
Fouls
26%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1315.0527.18safe9.27–14.9912.10–17.9921.38–32.98safer8.39–15.8711.18–18.9119.57–34.78actual10.008.0018.00
Offsides
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.393.09safe0.49–2.910.22–2.550.71–5.46safer0.15–3.250.00–2.880.04–6.14actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
33%
19%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.424.42safe0.94–3.051.30–3.542.24–6.59safer0.67–3.331.01–3.831.68–7.16actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.120.16safe0.00–0.200.00–0.310.00–0.51safer0.00–0.350.00–0.450.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
23%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.963.065.02safe0.54–3.371.50–4.612.05–7.99safer0.16–3.761.07–5.041.23–8.81actual5.004.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.35–2.27 0.09–2.53 | 3.00 | 0.91 0.05–1.77 0.00–2.01 | 1.00 | 2.22 0.40–4.04 0.00–4.55 | 4.00 | 46% 28% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.85–6.56 2.35–7.06 | 7.00 | 3.12 1.41–4.83 0.95–5.30 | 6.00 | 7.83 4.26–11.39 3.29–12.36 | 13.00 | 65% 23% |
| Total shots | 14.25 10.55–17.95 9.52–18.98 | 14.00 | 9.75 6.38–13.13 5.45–14.06 | 16.00 | 24.00 16.92–31.09 14.96–33.05 | 30.00 | 79% 15% |
| Shots in box | 8.06 5.54–10.57 4.68–11.44 | 10.00 | 6.12 3.81–8.42 3.02–9.21 | 9.00 | 14.17 9.36–18.99 7.69–20.65 | 19.00 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.32 1.73–4.90 1.20–5.43 | 1.00 | 2.73 1.31–4.14 0.82–4.63 | 2.00 | 6.04 3.04–9.04 2.02–10.06 | 3.00 | 51% 16% 33% |
| Corners | 5.68 3.47–7.88 2.88–8.48 | 1.00 | 4.16 2.18–6.14 1.65–6.68 | 6.00 | 9.84 5.66–14.02 4.53–15.16 | 7.00 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 53.53 47.21–59.84 45.61–61.44 | 56.00 | 45.44 39.12–51.76 37.52–53.36 | 44.00 | — | — | 67% 28% |
| Passes | 433 368–499 350–516 | 529 | 339 275–404 257–422 | 410 | 773 643–903 607–938 | 939 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.27 75.06–83.49 73.76–84.79 | — | 72.01 67.50–76.51 66.17–77.84 | — | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Fouls | 12.13 9.27–14.99 8.39–15.87 | 10.00 | 15.05 12.10–17.99 11.18–18.91 | 8.00 | 27.18 21.38–32.98 19.57–34.78 | 18.00 | 26% 68% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.49–2.91 0.15–3.25 | 1.00 | 1.39 0.22–2.55 0.00–2.88 | 0.00 | 3.09 0.71–5.46 0.04–6.14 | 1.00 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.94–3.05 0.67–3.33 | 0.00 | 2.42 1.30–3.54 1.01–3.83 | 1.00 | 4.42 2.24–6.59 1.68–7.16 | 1.00 | 33% 19% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 1.96 0.54–3.37 0.16–3.76 | 5.00 | 3.06 1.50–4.61 1.07–5.04 | 4.00 | 5.02 2.05–7.99 1.23–8.81 | 9.00 | 23% 16% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.