Liga I·Regular Season - 9·
Liga I·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Szabolcs Kovacs · Romania
Goals
64%
20%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.130.973.10safe1.17–3.100.11–1.831.28–4.92safer0.91–3.360.00–2.070.77–5.43actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.963.809.75safe4.10–7.812.09–5.506.19–13.32safer3.60–8.311.62–5.975.22–14.28actual3.002.005.00
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction16.8111.0727.88safe13.10–20.517.69–14.4520.79–34.96safer12.07–21.546.76–15.3818.83–36.92actual12.006.0018.00
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction10.896.4317.32safe8.37–13.404.13–8.7312.50–22.14safer7.51–14.273.33–9.5310.84–23.80actual8.004.0012.00
Blocked shots
63%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.443.027.46safe2.85–6.021.61–4.444.46–10.46safer2.32–6.561.12–4.933.44–11.48actual4.001.005.00
Corners
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.103.709.80safe3.89–8.301.72–5.685.61–13.98safer3.30–8.901.18–6.214.48–15.11actual3.004.007.00
Possession %
57%
39%
homeawayprediction51.8448.21safe45.52–58.1541.89–54.53safer43.92–59.7540.29–56.12actual58.0042.00
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction433395828safe368–498330–459698–958safer350–516313–477663–993actual538392930
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction81.3878.46safe77.17–85.6073.95–82.97safer75.87–86.9072.62–84.30
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6610.9922.64safe8.80–14.518.04–13.9316.84–28.45safer7.91–15.407.12–14.8515.04–30.25actual14.0011.0025.00
Offsides
49%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.172.83safe0.46–2.870.01–2.330.46–5.21safer0.11–3.220.00–2.670.00–5.88actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.104.16safe1.00–3.110.98–3.221.98–6.34safer0.73–3.380.69–3.511.42–6.90actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.653.015.66safe1.23–4.061.46–4.572.69–8.63safer0.84–4.451.03–5.001.87–9.45actual2.000.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.13 1.17–3.10 0.91–3.36 | 3.00 | 0.97 0.11–1.83 0.00–2.07 | 0.00 | 3.10 1.28–4.92 0.77–5.43 | 3.00 | 64% 20% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.96 4.10–7.81 3.60–8.31 | 3.00 | 3.80 2.09–5.50 1.62–5.97 | 2.00 | 9.75 6.19–13.32 5.22–14.28 | 5.00 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 16.81 13.10–20.51 12.07–21.54 | 12.00 | 11.07 7.69–14.45 6.76–15.38 | 6.00 | 27.88 20.79–34.96 18.83–36.92 | 18.00 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 10.89 8.37–13.40 7.51–14.27 | 8.00 | 6.43 4.13–8.73 3.33–9.53 | 4.00 | 17.32 12.50–22.14 10.84–23.80 | 12.00 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.44 2.85–6.02 2.32–6.56 | 4.00 | 3.02 1.61–4.44 1.12–4.93 | 1.00 | 7.46 4.46–10.46 3.44–11.48 | 5.00 | 63% 13% 24% |
| Corners | 6.10 3.89–8.30 3.30–8.90 | 3.00 | 3.70 1.72–5.68 1.18–6.21 | 4.00 | 9.80 5.61–13.98 4.48–15.11 | 7.00 | 73% 17% |
| Possession % | 51.84 45.52–58.15 43.92–59.75 | 58.00 | 48.21 41.89–54.53 40.29–56.12 | 42.00 | — | — | 57% 39% |
| Passes | 433 368–498 350–516 | 538 | 395 330–459 313–477 | 392 | 828 698–958 663–993 | 930 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.38 77.17–85.60 75.87–86.90 | — | 78.46 73.95–82.97 72.62–84.30 | — | — | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 11.66 8.80–14.51 7.91–15.40 | 14.00 | 10.99 8.04–13.93 7.12–14.85 | 11.00 | 22.64 16.84–28.45 15.04–30.25 | 25.00 | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.46–2.87 0.11–3.22 | 1.00 | 1.17 0.01–2.33 0.00–2.67 | 3.00 | 2.83 0.46–5.21 0.00–5.88 | 4.00 | 49% 24% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.00–3.11 0.73–3.38 | 2.00 | 2.10 0.98–3.22 0.69–3.51 | 2.00 | 4.16 1.98–6.34 1.42–6.90 | 4.00 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 1.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 1.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.23–4.06 0.84–4.45 | 2.00 | 3.01 1.46–4.57 1.03–5.00 | 0.00 | 5.66 2.69–8.63 1.87–9.45 | 2.00 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+