Liga I·Regular Season - 10·
Liga I·Regular Season - 10·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Iulian Calin · Romania
Goals
28%
27%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.041.392.43safe0.08–2.000.53–2.250.61–4.25safer0.00–2.260.28–2.500.10–4.76actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.854.458.30safe1.99–5.712.74–6.154.73–11.86safer1.50–6.212.27–6.623.77–12.83actual10.002.0012.00
Total shots
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2712.8324.10safe7.57–14.989.45–16.2117.02–31.18safer6.54–16.018.52–17.1415.06–33.15actual23.0010.0033.00
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction7.518.2415.76safe5.00–10.035.94–10.5410.94–20.57safer4.13–10.895.14–11.349.28–22.24actual16.007.0023.00
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.286.33safe1.46–4.631.87–4.703.33–9.32safer0.92–5.161.38–5.182.31–10.35actual5.002.007.00
Corners
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.354.789.14safe2.15–6.562.81–6.764.96–13.32safer1.55–7.152.27–7.303.82–14.45actual6.001.007.00
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.5258.19safe36.20–48.8451.87–64.51safer34.60–50.4350.28–66.11actual56.0044.00
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction352492844safe287–418427–557714–974safer269–435410–574679–1009actual515391906
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction67.1078.17safe62.89–71.3273.66–82.67safer61.59–72.6272.33–84.00
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0811.2824.36safe10.22–15.938.34–14.2318.56–30.16safer9.33–16.827.42–15.1516.76–31.97actual11.008.0019.00
Offsides
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.723.54safe0.61–3.030.56–2.881.17–5.91safer0.26–3.370.23–3.220.49–6.59actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
43%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.512.414.92safe1.46–3.571.29–3.532.74–7.10safer1.18–3.841.00–3.822.18–7.66actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.81actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
55%
17%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.072.245.32safe1.66–4.490.69–3.802.35–8.29safer1.27–4.880.26–4.231.53–9.11actual1.006.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.08–2.00 0.00–2.26 | 3.00 | 1.39 0.53–2.25 0.28–2.50 | 1.00 | 2.43 0.61–4.25 0.10–4.76 | 4.00 | 28% 27% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.85 1.99–5.71 1.50–6.21 | 10.00 | 4.45 2.74–6.15 2.27–6.62 | 2.00 | 8.30 4.73–11.86 3.77–12.83 | 12.00 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 11.27 7.57–14.98 6.54–16.01 | 23.00 | 12.83 9.45–16.21 8.52–17.14 | 10.00 | 24.10 17.02–31.18 15.06–33.15 | 33.00 | 34% 58% |
| Shots in box | 7.51 5.00–10.03 4.13–10.89 | 16.00 | 8.24 5.94–10.54 5.14–11.34 | 7.00 | 15.76 10.94–20.57 9.28–22.24 | 23.00 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.04 1.46–4.63 0.92–5.16 | 5.00 | 3.28 1.87–4.70 1.38–5.18 | 2.00 | 6.33 3.33–9.32 2.31–10.35 | 7.00 | 38% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 4.35 2.15–6.56 1.55–7.15 | 6.00 | 4.78 2.81–6.76 2.27–7.30 | 1.00 | 9.14 4.96–13.32 3.82–14.45 | 7.00 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Possession % | 42.52 36.20–48.84 34.60–50.43 | 56.00 | 58.19 51.87–64.51 50.28–66.11 | 44.00 | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 352 287–418 269–435 | 515 | 492 427–557 410–574 | 391 | 844 714–974 679–1009 | 906 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.10 62.89–71.32 61.59–72.62 | — | 78.17 73.66–82.67 72.33–84.00 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 13.08 10.22–15.93 9.33–16.82 | 11.00 | 11.28 8.34–14.23 7.42–15.15 | 8.00 | 24.36 18.56–30.16 16.76–31.97 | 19.00 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.61–3.03 0.26–3.37 | 0.00 | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.23–3.22 | 1.00 | 3.54 1.17–5.91 0.49–6.59 | 1.00 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.51 1.46–3.57 1.18–3.84 | 1.00 | 2.41 1.29–3.53 1.00–3.82 | 1.00 | 4.92 2.74–7.10 2.18–7.66 | 2.00 | 43% 18% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 1.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 1.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.66–4.49 1.27–4.88 | 1.00 | 2.24 0.69–3.80 0.26–4.23 | 6.00 | 5.32 2.35–8.29 1.53–9.11 | 7.00 | 55% 17% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.