Liga I·Regular Season - 10·
Liga I·Regular Season - 10·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Marian Barbu · Romania
Goals
53%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.072.81safe0.78–2.710.21–1.930.99–4.64safer0.52–2.970.00–2.180.48–5.14actual4.000.004.00
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.893.899.78safe4.04–7.752.18–5.606.22–13.35safer3.54–8.251.72–6.075.25–14.31actual7.006.0013.00
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5410.0926.63safe12.84–20.256.71–13.4719.55–33.71safer11.81–21.285.78–14.4017.59–35.67actual19.0010.0029.00
Shots in box
81%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction10.676.6017.27safe8.16–13.194.30–8.9012.45–22.09safer7.29–14.053.50–9.6910.79–23.75actual15.006.0021.00
Blocked shots
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.592.437.02safe3.01–6.181.01–3.844.02–10.02safer2.47–6.710.53–4.333.00–11.04actual4.003.007.00
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.194.0310.22safe3.99–8.402.05–6.016.04–14.41safer3.39–8.991.52–6.554.91–15.54actual5.004.009.00
Possession %
74%
23%
homeawayprediction55.3744.41safe49.05–61.6938.10–50.73safer47.46–63.2836.50–52.33actual45.0055.00
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction509398907safe443–574334–463777–1037safer426–592316–481742–1072actual449545994
Pass accuracy %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction79.3671.61safe75.14–83.5767.10–76.11safer73.84–84.8765.77–77.44
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0312.8223.85safe8.18–13.899.87–15.7618.05–29.66safer7.29–14.788.96–16.6816.25–31.46actual6.004.0010.00
Offsides
33%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.883.50safe0.41–2.820.72–3.051.13–5.87safer0.06–3.170.39–3.380.45–6.55actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
26%
18%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.594.36safe0.71–2.821.47–3.712.19–6.54safer0.44–3.101.18–4.001.62–7.10actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.170.24safe0.00–0.220.00–0.360.00–0.58safer0.00–0.370.00–0.510.00–0.88actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
24%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.363.555.91safe0.95–3.781.99–5.102.94–8.88safer0.56–4.171.56–5.532.12–9.70actual6.003.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 0.78–2.71 0.52–2.97 | 4.00 | 1.07 0.21–1.93 0.00–2.18 | 0.00 | 2.81 0.99–4.64 0.48–5.14 | 4.00 | 53% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.89 4.04–7.75 3.54–8.25 | 7.00 | 3.89 2.18–5.60 1.72–6.07 | 6.00 | 9.78 6.22–13.35 5.25–14.31 | 13.00 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 16.54 12.84–20.25 11.81–21.28 | 19.00 | 10.09 6.71–13.47 5.78–14.40 | 10.00 | 26.63 19.55–33.71 17.59–35.67 | 29.00 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 10.67 8.16–13.19 7.29–14.05 | 15.00 | 6.60 4.30–8.90 3.50–9.69 | 6.00 | 17.27 12.45–22.09 10.79–23.75 | 21.00 | 81% 13% |
| Blocked shots | 4.59 3.01–6.18 2.47–6.71 | 4.00 | 2.43 1.01–3.84 0.53–4.33 | 3.00 | 7.02 4.02–10.02 3.00–11.04 | 7.00 | 74% 15% |
| Corners | 6.19 3.99–8.40 3.39–8.99 | 5.00 | 4.03 2.05–6.01 1.52–6.55 | 4.00 | 10.22 6.04–14.41 4.91–15.54 | 9.00 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 55.37 49.05–61.69 47.46–63.28 | 45.00 | 44.41 38.10–50.73 36.50–52.33 | 55.00 | — | — | 74% 23% |
| Passes | 509 443–574 426–592 | 449 | 398 334–463 316–481 | 545 | 907 777–1037 742–1072 | 994 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.36 75.14–83.57 73.84–84.87 | — | 71.61 67.10–76.11 65.77–77.44 | — | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Fouls | 11.03 8.18–13.89 7.29–14.78 | 6.00 | 12.82 9.87–15.76 8.96–16.68 | 4.00 | 23.85 18.05–29.66 16.25–31.46 | 10.00 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.41–2.82 0.06–3.17 | 0.00 | 1.88 0.72–3.05 0.39–3.38 | 1.00 | 3.50 1.13–5.87 0.45–6.55 | 1.00 | 33% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.71–2.82 0.44–3.10 | 1.00 | 2.59 1.47–3.71 1.18–4.00 | 0.00 | 4.36 2.19–6.54 1.62–7.10 | 1.00 | 26% 18% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.51 | 1.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | 1.00 | 80% 15% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.95–3.78 0.56–4.17 | 6.00 | 3.55 1.99–5.10 1.56–5.53 | 3.00 | 5.91 2.94–8.88 2.12–9.70 | 9.00 | 24% 15% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.