Liga I·Regular Season - 10·
Liga I·Regular Season - 10·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Marius Florin Badea · Romania
Goals
45%
28%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.330.962.29safe0.37–2.300.10–1.820.47–4.11safer0.11–2.560.00–2.070.00–4.62actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.163.428.58safe3.30–7.011.71–5.135.01–12.14safer2.80–7.511.25–5.604.05–13.11actual10.002.0012.00
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9910.6724.66safe10.29–17.697.29–14.0417.57–31.74safer9.26–18.726.36–14.9715.61–33.70actual23.0011.0034.00
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction8.197.1315.31safe5.67–10.704.82–9.4310.49–20.13safer4.80–11.574.03–10.228.83–21.79actual11.007.0018.00
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.603.286.88safe2.01–5.181.87–4.703.88–9.88safer1.48–5.711.38–5.192.86–10.90actual7.005.0012.00
Corners
60%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.704.4110.11safe3.49–7.902.44–6.395.93–14.29safer2.90–8.501.90–6.934.80–15.43actual10.004.0014.00
Possession %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction52.9246.87safe46.60–59.2340.55–53.19safer45.00–60.8338.95–54.78actual57.0043.00
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction457385842safe392–522320–450712–972safer374–540303–467677–1007actual428322750
Pass accuracy %
60%
36%
homeawayprediction68.7166.26safe64.49–72.9261.75–70.77safer63.19–74.2360.42–72.10
Fouls
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9610.3421.30safe8.10–13.817.40–13.2915.50–27.10safer7.21–14.706.48–14.2113.70–28.91actual9.009.0018.00
Offsides
43%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.573.33safe0.55–2.970.40–2.730.95–5.70safer0.21–3.310.07–3.060.28–6.37actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
33%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.023.73safe0.65–2.770.90–3.141.55–5.90safer0.38–3.040.61–3.430.99–6.47actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.360.00–0.410.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.665.13safe1.06–3.891.10–4.212.17–8.10safer0.67–4.280.67–4.641.34–8.92actual1.007.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.37–2.30 0.11–2.56 | 3.00 | 0.96 0.10–1.82 0.00–2.07 | 1.00 | 2.29 0.47–4.11 0.00–4.62 | 4.00 | 45% 28% 27% |
| Shots on target | 5.16 3.30–7.01 2.80–7.51 | 10.00 | 3.42 1.71–5.13 1.25–5.60 | 2.00 | 8.58 5.01–12.14 4.05–13.11 | 12.00 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 13.99 10.29–17.69 9.26–18.72 | 23.00 | 10.67 7.29–14.04 6.36–14.97 | 11.00 | 24.66 17.57–31.74 15.61–33.70 | 34.00 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 8.19 5.67–10.70 4.80–11.57 | 11.00 | 7.13 4.82–9.43 4.03–10.22 | 7.00 | 15.31 10.49–20.13 8.83–21.79 | 18.00 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 2.01–5.18 1.48–5.71 | 7.00 | 3.28 1.87–4.70 1.38–5.19 | 5.00 | 6.88 3.88–9.88 2.86–10.90 | 12.00 | 47% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 5.70 3.49–7.90 2.90–8.50 | 10.00 | 4.41 2.44–6.39 1.90–6.93 | 4.00 | 10.11 5.93–14.29 4.80–15.43 | 14.00 | 60% 29% |
| Possession % | 52.92 46.60–59.23 45.00–60.83 | 57.00 | 46.87 40.55–53.19 38.95–54.78 | 43.00 | — | — | 63% 33% |
| Passes | 457 392–522 374–540 | 428 | 385 320–450 303–467 | 322 | 842 712–972 677–1007 | 750 | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.71 64.49–72.92 63.19–74.23 | — | 66.26 61.75–70.77 60.42–72.10 | — | — | — | 60% 36% |
| Fouls | 10.96 8.10–13.81 7.21–14.70 | 9.00 | 10.34 7.40–13.29 6.48–14.21 | 9.00 | 21.30 15.50–27.10 13.70–28.91 | 18.00 | 51% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.55–2.97 0.21–3.31 | 0.00 | 1.57 0.40–2.73 0.07–3.06 | 0.00 | 3.33 0.95–5.70 0.28–6.37 | 0.00 | 43% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.65–2.77 0.38–3.04 | 1.00 | 2.02 0.90–3.14 0.61–3.43 | 3.00 | 3.73 1.55–5.90 0.99–6.47 | 4.00 | 33% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.06–3.89 0.67–4.28 | 1.00 | 2.66 1.10–4.21 0.67–4.64 | 7.00 | 5.13 2.17–8.10 1.34–8.92 | 8.00 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.