Liga I·Regular Season - 10·
Liga I·Regular Season - 10·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Florin Andrei · Romania
Goals
22%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.893.00safe0.15–2.071.03–2.751.17–4.82safer0.00–2.330.78–2.990.67–5.32actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.985.449.42safe2.12–5.843.73–7.145.85–12.98safer1.62–6.333.26–7.614.89–13.95actual6.006.0012.00
Total shots
20%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5015.3326.83safe7.80–15.2011.95–18.7119.75–33.91safer6.77–16.2311.02–19.6417.79–35.87actual16.0017.0033.00
Shots in box
24%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction7.8810.3618.23safe5.36–10.408.05–12.6613.42–23.05safer4.50–11.267.26–13.4511.76–24.71actual10.009.0019.00
Blocked shots
27%
13%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.254.447.70safe1.67–4.843.03–5.864.70–10.70safer1.14–5.372.54–6.353.68–11.72actual3.003.006.00
Corners
28%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.265.639.89safe2.06–6.473.65–7.615.71–14.08safer1.46–7.063.11–8.144.58–15.21actual8.004.0012.00
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.1557.88safe35.83–48.4751.56–64.20safer34.24–50.0649.96–65.80actual45.0055.00
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction374501875safe308–439436–566745–1005safer291–457419–583710–1040actual363457820
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction66.2177.02safe61.99–70.4372.51–81.53safer60.69–71.7371.18–82.86
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3211.8822.21safe7.47–13.188.94–14.8316.41–28.01safer6.58–14.078.02–15.7514.60–29.81actual10.009.0019.00
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.823.70safe0.67–3.090.66–2.981.33–6.07safer0.33–3.430.32–3.310.65–6.75actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.091.984.07safe1.03–3.140.86–3.101.89–6.24safer0.76–3.420.57–3.391.33–6.81actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
48%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.912.485.39safe1.49–4.320.93–4.042.42–8.36safer1.10–4.710.50–4.471.60–9.18actual4.006.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.15–2.07 0.00–2.33 | 0.00 | 1.89 1.03–2.75 0.78–2.99 | 2.00 | 3.00 1.17–4.82 0.67–5.32 | 2.00 | 22% 22% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.98 2.12–5.84 1.62–6.33 | 6.00 | 5.44 3.73–7.14 3.26–7.61 | 6.00 | 9.42 5.85–12.98 4.89–13.95 | 12.00 | 26% 62% |
| Total shots | 11.50 7.80–15.20 6.77–16.23 | 16.00 | 15.33 11.95–18.71 11.02–19.64 | 17.00 | 26.83 19.75–33.91 17.79–35.87 | 33.00 | 20% 74% |
| Shots in box | 7.88 5.36–10.40 4.50–11.26 | 10.00 | 10.36 8.05–12.66 7.26–13.45 | 9.00 | 18.23 13.42–23.05 11.76–24.71 | 19.00 | 24% 68% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.67–4.84 1.14–5.37 | 3.00 | 4.44 3.03–5.86 2.54–6.35 | 3.00 | 7.70 4.70–10.70 3.68–11.72 | 6.00 | 27% 13% 60% |
| Corners | 4.26 2.06–6.47 1.46–7.06 | 8.00 | 5.63 3.65–7.61 3.11–8.14 | 4.00 | 9.89 5.71–14.08 4.58–15.21 | 12.00 | 28% 61% |
| Possession % | 42.15 35.83–48.47 34.24–50.06 | 45.00 | 57.88 51.56–64.20 49.96–65.80 | 55.00 | — | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 374 308–439 291–457 | 363 | 501 436–566 419–583 | 457 | 875 745–1005 710–1040 | 820 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.21 61.99–70.43 60.69–71.73 | — | 77.02 72.51–81.53 71.18–82.86 | — | — | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 10.32 7.47–13.18 6.58–14.07 | 10.00 | 11.88 8.94–14.83 8.02–15.75 | 9.00 | 22.21 16.41–28.01 14.60–29.81 | 19.00 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.67–3.09 0.33–3.43 | 2.00 | 1.82 0.66–2.98 0.32–3.31 | 0.00 | 3.70 1.33–6.07 0.65–6.75 | 2.00 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.03–3.14 0.76–3.42 | 2.00 | 1.98 0.86–3.10 0.57–3.39 | 0.00 | 4.07 1.89–6.24 1.33–6.81 | 2.00 | 42% 20% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.49–4.32 1.10–4.71 | 4.00 | 2.48 0.93–4.04 0.50–4.47 | 6.00 | 5.39 2.42–8.36 1.60–9.18 | 10.00 | 48% 17% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.