Liga I·Regular Season - 10·
Liga I·Regular Season - 10·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Rares George Vidican · Romania
Goals
46%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.152.68safe0.57–2.490.29–2.010.86–4.50safer0.31–2.760.04–2.250.35–5.01actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.894.108.99safe3.03–6.752.40–5.815.43–12.56safer2.54–7.251.93–6.284.46–13.52actual7.007.0014.00
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9211.8325.75safe10.22–17.628.46–15.2118.67–32.84safer9.19–18.657.52–16.1416.71–34.80actual25.0018.0043.00
Shots in box
66%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction9.857.5717.42safe7.33–12.365.27–9.8712.60–22.24safer6.47–13.234.47–10.6710.94–23.90actual13.0013.0026.00
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.963.247.21safe2.38–5.551.83–4.664.21–10.21safer1.85–6.081.34–5.143.19–11.23actual6.004.0010.00
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.244.279.52safe3.04–7.452.30–6.255.33–13.70safer2.44–8.041.76–6.794.20–14.83actual8.008.0016.00
Possession %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction57.5744.24safe51.25–63.8937.92–50.56safer49.65–65.4836.32–52.16actual60.0040.00
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction480372852safe414–545307–437722–982safer397–563290–454687–1017actual432280712
Pass accuracy %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction75.4767.59safe71.26–79.6963.08–72.09safer69.96–80.9961.75–73.43
Fouls
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1213.5823.70safe7.26–12.9810.64–16.5317.90–29.50safer6.38–13.869.72–17.4516.10–31.31actual11.0023.0034.00
Offsides
42%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.633.41safe0.57–2.990.47–2.791.04–5.78safer0.22–3.330.14–3.130.36–6.46actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.262.364.62safe1.21–3.321.24–3.482.45–6.80safer0.94–3.590.95–3.771.89–7.36actual5.006.0011.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.150.24safe0.00–0.250.00–0.340.00–0.59safer0.00–0.400.00–0.480.00–0.88actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.592.845.43safe1.18–4.011.29–4.392.47–8.40safer0.79–4.400.85–4.831.64–9.22actual4.005.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 0.57–2.49 0.31–2.76 | 2.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.04–2.25 | 3.00 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.35–5.01 | 5.00 | 46% 25% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.89 3.03–6.75 2.54–7.25 | 7.00 | 4.10 2.40–5.81 1.93–6.28 | 7.00 | 8.99 5.43–12.56 4.46–13.52 | 14.00 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.92 10.22–17.62 9.19–18.65 | 25.00 | 11.83 8.46–15.21 7.52–16.14 | 18.00 | 25.75 18.67–32.84 16.71–34.80 | 43.00 | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 9.85 7.33–12.36 6.47–13.23 | 13.00 | 7.57 5.27–9.87 4.47–10.67 | 13.00 | 17.42 12.60–22.24 10.94–23.90 | 26.00 | 66% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 3.96 2.38–5.55 1.85–6.08 | 6.00 | 3.24 1.83–4.66 1.34–5.14 | 4.00 | 7.21 4.21–10.21 3.19–11.23 | 10.00 | 53% 15% 32% |
| Corners | 5.24 3.04–7.45 2.44–8.04 | 8.00 | 4.27 2.30–6.25 1.76–6.79 | 8.00 | 9.52 5.33–13.70 4.20–14.83 | 16.00 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 57.57 51.25–63.89 49.65–65.48 | 60.00 | 44.24 37.92–50.56 36.32–52.16 | 40.00 | — | — | 78% 18% |
| Passes | 480 414–545 397–563 | 432 | 372 307–437 290–454 | 280 | 852 722–982 687–1017 | 712 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.47 71.26–79.69 69.96–80.99 | — | 67.59 63.08–72.09 61.75–73.43 | — | — | — | 82% 15% |
| Fouls | 10.12 7.26–12.98 6.38–13.86 | 11.00 | 13.58 10.64–16.53 9.72–17.45 | 23.00 | 23.70 17.90–29.50 16.10–31.31 | 34.00 | 21% 73% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.57–2.99 0.22–3.33 | 0.00 | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.14–3.13 | 0.00 | 3.41 1.04–5.78 0.36–6.46 | 0.00 | 42% 23% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.26 1.21–3.32 0.94–3.59 | 5.00 | 2.36 1.24–3.48 0.95–3.77 | 6.00 | 4.62 2.45–6.80 1.89–7.36 | 11.00 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 0.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.18–4.01 0.79–4.40 | 4.00 | 2.84 1.29–4.39 0.85–4.83 | 5.00 | 5.43 2.47–8.40 1.64–9.22 | 9.00 | 37% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.