Liga I·Regular Season - 10·
Liga I·Regular Season - 10·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Sorin Dan Vadana · Romania
Goals
51%
24%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.082.74safe0.69–2.620.22–1.940.92–4.56safer0.43–2.880.00–2.190.41–5.07actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
51%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.644.048.67safe2.78–6.492.33–5.745.11–12.24safer2.28–6.991.86–6.214.14–13.20actual7.003.0010.00
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8612.6727.53safe11.16–18.579.29–16.0420.45–34.61safer10.13–19.608.36–16.9718.48–36.57actual18.008.0026.00
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction8.557.1915.74safe6.04–11.074.89–9.4910.93–20.56safer5.17–11.934.09–10.299.26–22.22actual11.002.0013.00
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.793.196.99safe2.21–5.381.78–4.613.99–9.99safer1.68–5.911.29–5.092.97–11.01actual2.002.004.00
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.584.259.83safe3.38–7.792.27–6.235.65–14.02safer2.78–8.381.74–6.774.52–15.15actual2.001.003.00
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.4548.88safe45.13–57.7742.56–55.20safer43.54–59.3740.96–56.79actual53.0047.00
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction422380802safe356–487316–445672–932safer339–505298–463637–967actual385348733
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction70.3069.51safe66.08–74.5265.00–74.01safer64.78–75.8263.67–75.34
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1614.0427.20safe10.31–16.0211.09–16.9821.40–33.00safer9.42–16.9110.17–17.9019.59–34.80actual11.0014.0025.00
Offsides
51%
22%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.333.26safe0.72–3.140.17–2.490.89–5.64safer0.38–3.490.00–2.830.22–6.31actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
30%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.424.29safe0.82–2.931.30–3.542.12–6.47safer0.55–3.201.01–3.831.56–7.03actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
28%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.413.245.65safe1.00–3.831.69–4.802.69–8.62safer0.61–4.221.26–5.231.86–9.44actual3.005.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.69–2.62 0.43–2.88 | 2.00 | 1.08 0.22–1.94 0.00–2.19 | 0.00 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.41–5.07 | 2.00 | 51% 24% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.64 2.78–6.49 2.28–6.99 | 7.00 | 4.04 2.33–5.74 1.86–6.21 | 3.00 | 8.67 5.11–12.24 4.14–13.20 | 10.00 | 51% 13% 35% |
| Total shots | 14.86 11.16–18.57 10.13–19.60 | 18.00 | 12.67 9.29–16.04 8.36–16.97 | 8.00 | 27.53 20.45–34.61 18.48–36.57 | 26.00 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 8.55 6.04–11.07 5.17–11.93 | 11.00 | 7.19 4.89–9.49 4.09–10.29 | 2.00 | 15.74 10.93–20.56 9.26–22.22 | 13.00 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 2.21–5.38 1.68–5.91 | 2.00 | 3.19 1.78–4.61 1.29–5.09 | 2.00 | 6.99 3.99–9.99 2.97–11.01 | 4.00 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.58 3.38–7.79 2.78–8.38 | 2.00 | 4.25 2.27–6.23 1.74–6.77 | 1.00 | 9.83 5.65–14.02 4.52–15.15 | 3.00 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.45 45.13–57.77 43.54–59.37 | 53.00 | 48.88 42.56–55.20 40.96–56.79 | 47.00 | — | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 422 356–487 339–505 | 385 | 380 316–445 298–463 | 348 | 802 672–932 637–967 | 733 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.30 66.08–74.52 64.78–75.82 | — | 69.51 65.00–74.01 63.67–75.34 | — | — | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 13.16 10.31–16.02 9.42–16.91 | 11.00 | 14.04 11.09–16.98 10.17–17.90 | 14.00 | 27.20 21.40–33.00 19.59–34.80 | 25.00 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.72–3.14 0.38–3.49 | 1.00 | 1.33 0.17–2.49 0.00–2.83 | 2.00 | 3.26 0.89–5.64 0.22–6.31 | 3.00 | 51% 22% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.93 0.55–3.20 | 0.00 | 2.42 1.30–3.54 1.01–3.83 | 1.00 | 4.29 2.12–6.47 1.56–7.03 | 1.00 | 30% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.41 1.00–3.83 0.61–4.22 | 3.00 | 3.24 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.23 | 5.00 | 5.65 2.69–8.62 1.86–9.44 | 8.00 | 28% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.