Liga I·Regular Season - 10·
Liga I·Regular Season - 10·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Horatiu Fesnic · Romania
Goals
69%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.200.813.01safe1.24–3.160.00–1.671.18–4.83safer0.98–3.420.00–1.910.68–5.33actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction5.573.188.75safe3.71–7.421.47–4.895.18–12.31safer3.21–7.921.00–5.364.22–13.28actual11.002.0013.00
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction15.729.1824.90safe12.02–19.425.80–12.5617.82–31.98safer10.99–20.454.87–13.4915.86–33.94actual24.0010.0034.00
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction11.426.0017.42safe8.91–13.943.70–8.3012.60–22.24safer8.04–14.802.90–9.1010.94–23.90actual17.004.0021.00
Blocked shots
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.332.777.11safe2.75–5.921.36–4.194.11–10.10safer2.21–6.450.87–4.673.09–11.12actual5.001.006.00
Corners
71%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.454.1910.65safe4.25–8.662.22–6.176.46–14.83safer3.65–9.251.68–6.715.33–15.96actual5.001.006.00
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction57.6941.33safe51.38–64.0135.01–47.65safer49.78–65.6133.41–49.25actual51.0049.00
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction491373864safe426–556309–438734–994safer408–574291–456699–1029actual418400818
Pass accuracy %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction80.1373.82safe75.92–84.3569.31–78.32safer74.62–85.6567.98–79.65
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9810.7822.77safe9.13–14.847.84–13.7316.96–28.57safer8.24–15.736.92–14.6515.16–30.37actual15.0010.0025.00
Offsides
28%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.163.72safe0.35–2.771.00–3.331.35–6.10safer0.01–3.110.67–3.660.68–6.77actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
30%
18%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.072.674.74safe1.02–3.131.55–3.792.57–6.92safer0.74–3.401.26–4.082.01–7.48actual0.001.001.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.140.20safe0.00–0.210.00–0.340.00–0.55safer0.00–0.370.00–0.480.00–0.85actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
15%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction1.953.915.86safe0.54–3.372.35–5.462.89–8.83safer0.15–3.761.92–5.892.07–9.65actual2.006.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.20 1.24–3.16 0.98–3.42 | 5.00 | 0.81 0.00–1.67 0.00–1.91 | 0.00 | 3.01 1.18–4.83 0.68–5.33 | 5.00 | 69% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.57 3.71–7.42 3.21–7.92 | 11.00 | 3.18 1.47–4.89 1.00–5.36 | 2.00 | 8.75 5.18–12.31 4.22–13.28 | 13.00 | 74% 16% |
| Total shots | 15.72 12.02–19.42 10.99–20.45 | 24.00 | 9.18 5.80–12.56 4.87–13.49 | 10.00 | 24.90 17.82–31.98 15.86–33.94 | 34.00 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 11.42 8.91–13.94 8.04–14.80 | 17.00 | 6.00 3.70–8.30 2.90–9.10 | 4.00 | 17.42 12.60–22.24 10.94–23.90 | 21.00 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 4.33 2.75–5.92 2.21–6.45 | 5.00 | 2.77 1.36–4.19 0.87–4.67 | 1.00 | 7.11 4.11–10.10 3.09–11.12 | 6.00 | 65% 22% |
| Corners | 6.45 4.25–8.66 3.65–9.25 | 5.00 | 4.19 2.22–6.17 1.68–6.71 | 1.00 | 10.65 6.46–14.83 5.33–15.96 | 6.00 | 71% 20% |
| Possession % | 57.69 51.38–64.01 49.78–65.61 | 51.00 | 41.33 35.01–47.65 33.41–49.25 | 49.00 | — | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 491 426–556 408–574 | 418 | 373 309–438 291–456 | 400 | 864 734–994 699–1029 | 818 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.13 75.92–84.35 74.62–85.65 | — | 73.82 69.31–78.32 67.98–79.65 | — | — | — | 77% 20% |
| Fouls | 11.98 9.13–14.84 8.24–15.73 | 15.00 | 10.78 7.84–13.73 6.92–14.65 | 10.00 | 22.77 16.96–28.57 15.16–30.37 | 25.00 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.35–2.77 0.01–3.11 | 1.00 | 2.16 1.00–3.33 0.67–3.66 | 1.00 | 3.72 1.35–6.10 0.68–6.77 | 2.00 | 28% 21% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 1.02–3.13 0.74–3.40 | 0.00 | 2.67 1.55–3.79 1.26–4.08 | 1.00 | 4.74 2.57–6.92 2.01–7.48 | 1.00 | 30% 18% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.85 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 1.95 0.54–3.37 0.15–3.76 | 2.00 | 3.91 2.35–5.46 1.92–5.89 | 6.00 | 5.86 2.89–8.83 2.07–9.65 | 8.00 | 15% 73% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.