Liga I·Regular Season - 10·
Liga I·Regular Season - 10·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Radu Marian Petrescu · Romania
Goals
51%
24%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.072.73safe0.70–2.630.21–1.930.91–4.55safer0.44–2.890.00–2.170.40–5.06actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.954.099.05safe3.10–6.812.39–5.805.48–12.61safer2.60–7.311.92–6.274.52–13.58actual9.002.0011.00
Total shots
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6311.6426.27safe10.93–18.338.27–15.0219.19–33.36safer9.89–19.367.34–15.9517.23–35.32actual28.0010.0038.00
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.246.8017.04safe7.73–12.764.50–9.1012.23–21.86safer6.86–13.623.70–9.9010.56–23.52actual15.005.0020.00
Blocked shots
53%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.612.876.48safe2.03–5.191.46–4.293.48–9.48safer1.49–5.730.97–4.772.46–10.50actual7.003.0010.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.614.249.85safe3.40–7.812.27–6.225.67–14.03safer2.81–8.411.73–6.764.53–15.17actual13.004.0017.00
Possession %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction47.0952.55safe40.77–53.4146.23–58.87safer39.18–55.0144.63–60.46actual52.0048.00
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction363425789safe298–429361–490659–919safer280–446343–508624–954actual455438893
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction69.1669.65safe64.94–73.3865.14–74.15safer63.64–74.6863.81–75.48
Fouls
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2812.9229.20safe13.42–19.149.97–15.8723.40–35.00safer12.54–20.029.06–16.7821.59–36.80actual8.0016.0024.00
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.873.76safe0.68–3.100.71–3.031.39–6.14safer0.34–3.450.38–3.370.71–6.81actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
37%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.073.98safe0.86–2.970.95–3.191.81–6.16safer0.59–3.240.66–3.481.25–6.72actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.23safe0.00–0.280.00–0.300.00–0.58safer0.00–0.430.00–0.440.00–0.87actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.323.095.41safe0.90–3.731.54–4.652.44–8.38safer0.51–4.121.11–5.081.62–9.20actual2.008.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 0.70–2.63 0.44–2.89 | 1.00 | 1.07 0.21–1.93 0.00–2.17 | 0.00 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.40–5.06 | 1.00 | 51% 24% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.95 3.10–6.81 2.60–7.31 | 9.00 | 4.09 2.39–5.80 1.92–6.27 | 2.00 | 9.05 5.48–12.61 4.52–13.58 | 11.00 | 55% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.63 10.93–18.33 9.89–19.36 | 28.00 | 11.64 8.27–15.02 7.34–15.95 | 10.00 | 26.27 19.19–33.36 17.23–35.32 | 38.00 | 69% 25% |
| Shots in box | 10.24 7.73–12.76 6.86–13.62 | 15.00 | 6.80 4.50–9.10 3.70–9.90 | 5.00 | 17.04 12.23–21.86 10.56–23.52 | 20.00 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.61 2.03–5.19 1.49–5.73 | 7.00 | 2.87 1.46–4.29 0.97–4.77 | 3.00 | 6.48 3.48–9.48 2.46–10.50 | 10.00 | 53% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 5.61 3.40–7.81 2.81–8.41 | 13.00 | 4.24 2.27–6.22 1.73–6.76 | 4.00 | 9.85 5.67–14.03 4.53–15.17 | 17.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 47.09 40.77–53.41 39.18–55.01 | 52.00 | 52.55 46.23–58.87 44.63–60.46 | 48.00 | — | — | 34% 61% |
| Passes | 363 298–429 280–446 | 455 | 425 361–490 343–508 | 438 | 789 659–919 624–954 | 893 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.16 64.94–73.38 63.64–74.68 | — | 69.65 65.14–74.15 63.81–75.48 | — | — | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 16.28 13.42–19.14 12.54–20.02 | 8.00 | 12.92 9.97–15.87 9.06–16.78 | 16.00 | 29.20 23.40–35.00 21.59–36.80 | 24.00 | 70% 24% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.68–3.10 0.34–3.45 | 0.00 | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.38–3.37 | 1.00 | 3.76 1.39–6.14 0.71–6.81 | 1.00 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.97 0.59–3.24 | 0.00 | 2.07 0.95–3.19 0.66–3.48 | 2.00 | 3.98 1.81–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 2.00 | 37% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 0.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.32 0.90–3.73 0.51–4.12 | 2.00 | 3.09 1.54–4.65 1.11–5.08 | 8.00 | 5.41 2.44–8.38 1.62–9.20 | 10.00 | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.